The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Las Vegas Raiders.
Fantasy value — Zamir White, RB (ADP: 118.10, RB25)
Scoring a quality three-down RB after pick No. 100 is similar to stumbling into a nondescript casino on The Strip several beverages in and finding $1 blackjack tables at 2 a.m. Keep the cocktails — and lucky cards — coming.
White’s blood-stirring stretch to end the 2023 season is reason enough to have him triple-starred on your draft day cheat sheet. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, he amassed 114.3 total yards per game and averaged an eye-opening 4.7 yards per carry. Most promising for the numbers nerds, he also notched a sensational 3.43 yards after contact per attempt (RB14 in Weeks 15-18) and totaled 11 missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. Boosting the bottom line, he flashed reliable hands during the stretch, catching nine passes.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Yes, negative game scripts are likely and White will occasionally surrender touches to Ameer Abdullah and recent acquisition Alexander Mattison, but his overall contributions shouldn’t be underestimated. The Raiders’ above average offensive line and 10th-easiest projected strength of schedule for fantasy RBs only enhance the attraction.
Zig for Zamir while others zag. Roughly 1200 combined yards and 6-8 touchdowns are possible.
Prop pick — Davante Adams OVER 1000.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
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It doesn’t matter if Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew are spinning passes in Adams’ general direction. He should sail past 1,000 receiving yards with relative ease. The only roadblock is the always menacing injury imp. That’s it.
Assuming Adams plays at least 15 games, the indisputable No. 1 Raiders receiver should lure at least 150 targets. Last season on 33.1% of the team target share — the second-highest in the league — he averaged a ridiculous 10.3 targets per game. Of course, as his No. 69 ranking in catchable target rate indicates, many yards were left on the field. Still, he’ll thrive no matter who is the starting QB due to the rapport he built with O’Connell and Minshew’s No. 23 slotting in catchable pass rate last season with the Colts.
Overall, Adams owns the versatility, reliability and route win-ability to obliterate the above number by 200-300 yards. Undoubtedly, this is a favorite among season-long player prop markets. And he hasn’t missed a game since 2020.
Team lean — Raiders UNDER 6.5 wins (+110, Caesars)
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Taking the over on this team? Good luck trying to bluff holding a seven-deuce off-suit. Given the Raiders’ 10th-hardest projected strength of schedule and a roster littered with holes, ESPN’s Mike Clay gives them a 50% or higher win probability in only two games — both against Denver.
Yes, they’ll surprise in a game or three, but securing seven victories is akin to betting on green in roulette — a 5.26% chance of hitting. Taking the under should leave this -EV bettor in the black, for once.