The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Miami Dolphins.
Fantasy value — Raheem Mostert, RB (ADP: 127.72, RB26)
When you're 32 years old, you’re banished by most fantasy managers to the nearest nursing home, a place filled with bridge games, questionable food and warm glasses of “Shut the hell up” served by Ben Stiller’s character from “Happy Gilmore.”
Yes, Mostert is ancient and involved in a timeshare with a younger and sexier De’Von Achane, but he should continue to be a model of efficiency in a Mike McDaniel offense predicated on speed. When you have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle tiring defenses along with a projected above average offensive line, exploitable run lanes are sure to form.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Last season, Mostert ranked top-seven in several key categories, including YAC per attempt (3.35), total missed tackles (54), fantasy points per opportunity (1.11), expected points against and total red-zone touches (16 at the goal line). In a likely dead-even split with Achane, it’s not unthinkable for Mostert to again land well inside the RB top 15.
Prop pick — Tyreek Hill to lead NFL in receiving yards (+500, BetMGM)
Honestly, this is an over/under on games played. If Hill suits up for at least 15 games, he should cash the 5/1 wager with ease. If the menacing injury imp feasts on an appendage, thus limiting snaps played, this ticket will burst into flames. Given the appreciable odds, sprinkling action on the former scenario unfolding is a wise move.
Hill’s IndyCar-like, open-field speed routinely leaves defenders in the dust. As witnessed last season, he set the pace in receiving yards with 1,799. Among WRs, he was tops in YAC, yards per route run and route win percentage. Interestingly, he was No. 13 in unrealized air yards, meaning additional numbers were left on the field.
Last year, Hill’s goal was 2,000 yards. Stay healthy and that expectation, if tossed out again, is hardly a hollow promise. Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record — 1,964 set in 2012 — is very much on notice.
Team lean — Dolphins OVER 9.5 wins (-145, BetMGM)
ESPN’s Mike Clay projects the Dolphins for 9.8 wins. Keeping that in mind and matching it with Sharp Football’s No. 8 easiest forecasted schedule, 10 victories are entirely doable for Miami.
According to many number crunchers, the Dolphins not only project as a top-10 offense, but their defense also could push the top-five. The secondary, a unit featuring Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller, is particularly nasty.