When looking at the odds for a golf event, it’s natural to look at the juicy prices in the outright market. The idea of betting a little to win a lot is something a lot of bettors strive for. It’s something I do every golf tournament because it’s fun when a player you bet on is in the mix on Sunday. I already tipped Will Zalatoris and Cameron Young to win at the Masters this week.
However, the optimal way to invest in golf is to make bets closer to even odds. You can do this through betting on players to finish in the top five, top 10 or top 20. Player vs. player 18-hole and full tournament matchup bets are also a pragmatic way to wager. For major championships like the Masters, there’s a wide array of prop bets that we don’t see for regular PGA Tour events.
Here are three tournament and nationality props that stand out to me this week at the first major of 2024.
Masters tournament prop bet — Brian Harman, Top lefty (+165, DraftKings)
DraftKings offers:
He’s the last player to win a major. Nine months ago, Harman tamed Royal Liverpool to capture The Open Championship by six strokes. The Georgia native and University of Georgia product hasn’t had the best course history at Augusta National outside a 12th-place finish three years ago, but he is a better player now and nearly won The Players Championship last month.
I like betting on him in this market because I want to fade the other four lefties.
Akshay Bhatia claimed his Masters spot last Sunday when he won the Valero Texas Open and cashed a 66/1 ticket for me in the process. I can see a natural letdown from Bhatia off an emotional playoff win. Also, he was battling a shoulder injury on the playoff hole in San Antonio.
Nice to get my first outright hit of 2024 right before the Masters with Bhatia.
— Nate Jacobson (@natejacobson1) April 7, 2024
On to Augusta…
I also want to fade three-time Masters winner Phil Mickelson and two-time Masters winner Bubba Watson. Both play on the LIV Tour and haven’t come close to winning an event in the Saudi Arabian-funded golf league.
Mickelson finished tied for second at the Masters last year, when he came out of nowhere to card a final-round 65, but he never had a chance to win. I view that performance as a fluke because there was no pressure on him.
The last player to fade is another former Masters champion in 53-year-old Canadian Mike Weir, who is a non-factor and will miss the cut. That leads me to Harman to reign supreme among lefties in his home state.
Masters nationality prop bet — Viktor Hovland, Top Scandinavian (+170, BetRivers)
This is a potential buy-low spot on Hovland, who has drifted to as long as +4000 in the outright market. The Norwegian was the fourth favorite to win the Masters at the beginning of the year at prices as short as +1200, but his struggles over the last three months have seen his stock fall.
This might be the time to buy low on Hovland, who contended at the Masters last year before he shot a final-round 74.
A safer way to back Hovland is in the nationality props market. Scroll in your sportsbook of choice to the top Scandinavian/Nordic player, and you’ll find a four-player group headlined by Swedish wunderkind Ludvig Aberg with Hovland just behind him and the Danish duo of Nicolai Hojgaard and Thorbjorn Olesen a distant third and fourth.
Aberg is an incredibly impressive 24-year-old. However, he’s making his Masters debut this week, and course experience is something I value at the Masters. There’s a reason the last player to win a Masters in his first attempt was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Hojgaard and Olesen are two capable players, but Hovland is clearly a notch above them even if he’s not playing like it at the moment.
Hovland being the second favorite in this market leads me to believe he’ll be the best player from a Scandinavian country.
Masters nationality prop bet — Si Woo Kim, Top South Korean (+190, ESPN BET)
Kim is known as a boom-or-bust player who has the upside to win a big tournament, but he also has the floor to miss the cut in ugly fashion. This year, the 28-year-old is consistently making cuts, and his tee-to-green game has been very sharp. His current form and high ceiling have me considering him in the outright market at prices as long as +8000.
The preferred way to bet on Kim is in the top South Korean market. Part of it is making a play on Kim but also fading the trio of Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im and Tom Kim.
An missed the cut last week and only has made one cut at the Masters in four attempts. Im is a player I bet on for the 2023 Masters, but he has shown no form in the first three months of the year. Tom Kim also is out of form with a bad missed cut at the Texas Open last week.
That leads to Si Woo Kim emerging in this nationality market. He is worth a long-shot bet to win and/or finish top-five or top-10.