Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — Illinois ML vs. Iowa State (+120, MGM)
“A risk-free investment.”
No, wannabe standup comedian with tongue firmly planted in cheek. That is not how gambling works. If that were the case, this prolific scribe wouldn’t religiously dole out losers to semi-captivated audiences.
Nope, this ultra-wealthy tycoon would have his toes dipped in the white sands on his opulent seaside property, holding a Clase Azul Anejo and watching U2 perform a private concert while Kirby the Gambler, my furry Norfolk Terrier friend, sitting next to me wearing a diamond-studded collar with concubines giving him on-demand belly scratches and hand-fed liver treats.
The dream, especially for Kirby.
Ranking a close 1B to that never-to-happen fantasy is the dream of Illinois winning a national championship. The Illini are three steps away from achieving that. And it’s not an inconceivable illusion.
Illinois vs. Iowa State on Thursday in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 is bound to be an outright war.
🏀🏀🏀👇👇👇 https://t.co/4AzkyxYDY4
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) March 25, 2024
For the Illini to remain standing, they must continue to excel offensively. Brad Underwood’s “booty ball” brand is Kardashian-like in its execution. By backing defenders down, Illinois generates space, opens passing lanes and converts on high-percentage shots.
Marcus Domask, who recorded the 10th-ever NCAA Tournament triple-double in Round 1, is the scheme’s maestro. Coleman Hawkins also has occasionally been deployed in the role with marked success. Along with Terrence Shannon’s downhill assertiveness, Dain Dainja’s quick pivots and smooth three-point strokes from Luke Goode, the strategy has worked almost uninterrupted throughout tournament play. As a result, the Illini rank No. 3 nationally in points possession scored (1.307) while shooting 55.9% from two and 37.0% from three.
Iowa State, however, won’t be intimidated.
Leaning on their signature defense, the Cyclones are flawless in ball-screen denials and thrive in trap sets. And when it comes to contesting, they don’t stop and they don’t quit. Unsurprisingly, Iowa State is No. 3 this month in points per possession allowed (0.848), No. 20 in effective field-goal percentage defense and No. 5 in turnover percentage defense (24.5%).
Though T.J. Otzelberger’s boys don’t typically seal the glass (220+ in OR% and DR%) and are merely average offensively (No. 147 eFG offense in last eight), their ball pressure has caused nothing but fits.
Illinois has the advantage with its length. A tremendous rebounding club, the Orange and Blue have acquired another chance on 35.8% of their possessions in their last eight games. The Cyclones are No. 293 in defensive rebounding percentage over the same span. Hawkins, Domask, Shannon, Dainja and X-factor Quincy Guerrier could clean up squeezing caroms.
Still, given the Illini’s defensive downside (No. 143 in eFG D since March 1), the opposite could come true.
This feels like a pucker-up, last-second victory for either party. In what could be a classic between the nation’s No. 1 offense (Illinois) against the nation’s No. 1 defense (Iowa State), the “D wins championships” adage need not apply.
I-L-L! W-I-N?
Season record: 28-27, +6.45 units
BONUS TIME — Arizona -2.5, OVER 142.5 (+105, DK)