Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — SGP: Illinois ML, OVER 139.5 (+105, MGM)
Dearly beloved
We are gathered here today
To get through this thing called "life" …
Those words were belted out by one of the greatest pop singers, Prince, a baller in his own right according to Charlie Murphy. And the lyrics from his classic “Let’s Go Crazy!” definitely apply to Sunday’s Big Ten Tournament title game in Minneapolis.
With Purdue Pete sledgehammering railroad spikes in frustration after his Boilermakers’ last-second loss to Wisconsin, the Illini and Bucky are set to lock horns to determine auto-berth rights. For this University of Illinois degree holder (I graduated, with honors, in Adult Beverage Studies), the antennae are piques.
For Illinois to cut down the nets, it must perform at a B- level defensively over 40 minutes. This month, Brad Underwood’s bunch ranks No. 161 in effective field-goal percentage D, surrendering 48.9% from two and 35.8% from three. Hard-cutting teams who excel in off-the-ball screens and attack downhill have often been awarded an uninhibited path to the basket. Equally horrendous stretching out to the perimeter, the Illini have to play rigidly. They are capable. One week ago, they limited Iowa, an excellent offensive team, to 0.85 points per possession.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]
On the opposite end, Illinois packs plenty of plutonium. Terrence Shannon, who scored a Big Ten tourney record 40 points against a generally unyielding Nebraska defense, is arguably the best around-the-rim aggressor in the college game. Also, Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins, when they’re on, are tremendous scorers.
What’s vital for the Illini is the presence of a tertiary contributor, whether it’s Hawkins, Dain Dainja, Quincy Guerrier or Luke Goode. Still, as a unit, they’ve totaled a marvelous 1.254 points per possession since March 1.
As for Wisconsin, it has undergone a Dracula-like resurrection. Left for dead after dropping eight of their last 11 regular-season games, the Badgers are suddenly resembling the team that climbed to No. 6 in the national AP rankings in mid-January. They’re defending. They’re raining triples. And they’re performing as a well-oiled ensemble.
Since the calendar flipped to March, Wisconsin ranks top-45 in offensive efficiency (1.230 points per possession) and defensive efficiency (0.957 points per possession). Chucky Hepburn, Steven Crowl and firehose AJ Storr have been nothing shy of incredible. Again, reversal of fortune.
In the teams’ only regular-season entanglement, Illinois waltzed into Kohl Center and secured a 91-83 victory. Shannon and Damask, a former Wisconsin Mr. Basketball, combined for 54 points. The second go-round should be considerably closer. That’s why building a “safety first” SGP is my approach.
Take it home, Prince …
Let's go crazy (let's go crazy)
Let's get nuts (let's get nuts)
Season record: 18-17, +1.43 units
BONUS TIME — SGP: UAB -1.5, Game OVER 129.5 (-110, MGM)