In horse racing, many veteran attendees stubbornly subscribe to the adage, “You never want your horse to get out of the gate too early.” Unless Secretariat has been reincarnated running under the name Keep Me Stable, most bettors don’t want their show pony amplifying exhaustion before the quarter turn. To them, slow (somewhat) and steady does indeed win the race.
First-half college hoops investors, however, don’t follow such silly beliefs. They’re after sprinters, preferably the Usain Bolt variety, the ones who explode off the blocks and build sizable early leads. Who cares about second-half collapses (see Illinois at Penn State)? It’s all about the competition eating dust over the first 20 minutes.
This season, what teams are worthy of a first-half chase? What are their prospects of cashing yet again in their respective matchups on a loaded Saturday slate?
Here are my thoughts on three notable off-the-block ballers in college basketball and their chances of boosting bankrolls this weekend (ATS data pulled from OddsTrader).
James Madison (first-half ATS: 23-5) at Georgia Southern
JMU first-half stats: 39.4 ppg (No. 20), +8.5 pts margin (9)
First-half line: JMU -6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
America’s fourth President was the original man in black. For backers willing to toss coin at the university namesake, it could have them rolling in the same color.
The Dukes typically land early uppercuts — devastating blows that often leave opponents on the ropes. Spanking SunBelt clubs, JMU slots top-30 in eFG offense and eFG defense over its past nine games. Mark Byington’s team, which has won seven straight, makes foes pay with freebies and delivers consistently from the perimeter on both ends (41.1 3PT% offense, 26.7 3PT% D over last 30).
One of the most experienced squads in the modern game, the Dukes should easily handle Georgia Southern. The talon-less Eagles are No. 274 overall over the past 30 days, according to BartTorvik, checking in at No. 335 in D efficiency. They were outscored 20-8 by JMU over the final 10 minutes of the first half in the teams’ first encounter, an 87-80 Dukes win last Saturday.
In the rematch, it’s likely to be an all too familiar feeling. Georgia Southern is No. 315 nationally in first-half margin (-4.4).
Tail? YES.
Connecticut (first-half ATS: 22-5) vs. Villanova
UConn first-half stats: 40.0 ppg (13), +9.0 pts margin (7)
First-half line: UConn -6.5 (-110, DK)
Mush Huskies, MUSH! As witnessed continuously this season, Danny Hurley’s guys usually do. Against a Villanova team currently on the outside of the latest Bracket Big Board projections, the defending national champions are likely to kick in the cruise control early.
Comparatively, the Wildcats are a respectable No. 60 in first-half scoring margin at +4.0. However, they’re averaging only 33.7 points per game in those instances, so they’re not exactly smoking the scoreboard. Most supportingly for UConn backers, Tristen Newton and friends rank top-35 in eFG offense and eFG defense over the past month.
Sure, Villanova isn’t a slouch defensively, as evidenced by its No. 9 placement in D efficiency since late December. Still, 7-foot space eater Donovan Clingan is a unique specimen who the smallish ‘Cats simply can't contain.
Villanova shoots 47.5% of its shots from 3-point distance. If the Wildcats’ arc attempts don’t fall like Creighton’s did in last Tuesday’s upset of UConn, the likely No. 1 seed will Hulk-smash the first-half line.
Tail? YES.
Houston (first-half ATS: 21-5) at Baylor
First-half stats: 38.6 ppg (66), +11.5 (1)
First-half line: Houston -0.5 (-110, DK)
Seemingly destined for a top-seed presence, Houston sets the pace this season in first-half covers. Yes, Kelvin Sampson is perpetually grumpy. If you brought him a chocolate cake on his birthday, he would probably smash your face into it. No matter the score, he pushes for more punishment. The Cougars exemplify that coaching style, blitzing teams via dogged defense and relentless efforts on the offensive glass.
Houston coaxes turnovers, generates easy transition buckets and withers teams to the bone. Just as taxing, its methodical pace (No. 347 in adjusted tempo) ratchets frustration. However, LJ Cryer and company’s strengths on D mask glaring scoring flaws. Over their last eight games, the Cougars rank No. 274 in eFG offense, converting a measly 46.6% on 2s and 33.1% on 3s.
Set your defense, box out and protect the rock on offense and you could slay Goliath, Scott Drew. Baylor, No. 6 in eFG offense at home and No. 33 in first-half scoring margin (+5.4), is in line to compete. It’s possible that wackiness could ensue in Waco.
Tail? NO.