Parity, parity and more parity. It sounds cliche, but in various ways it ideally summarizes this college basketball season.
Calamity, chaos and unfiltered/undoctored/unbridled MADNESS will soon commence. Forget “The Bachelor” or “Housewives” shows. You want drama? Do you like suspense? The NCAA Tournament is sure to bring out all the claws.
There’s a dominance argument for Purdue and UConn, but, as witnessed in their losses at Ohio State and at Creighton, no school is immune from catching the upset bug. Invincibility simply does not exist. It’s why when the sun sets on Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament, millions will roll, light and smoke their bracket entries. Yaaaaa, maaan!
Until that inevitability, bank on more unexpected topplings, especially in high-leverage matchups.
Thus far, according to VSIN, ranked road teams are 66-53-3 ATS. That’s a profitable hit rate of 55.5%.
On Tuesday, three instances of the above will play out on the hardwood. Who bucks the trend? Who adds to it?
Let’s check the Upscale Scale (5 = Bound to happen, 1 = No chance).
Dayton (-2.5) at George Mason (+115 ML)
Upset Scale: 4 (with Maddox)
In the Selection Committee mock reveal last weekend, Dayton somewhat received the shaft. There’s an argument it possesses a top-seed resume despite the A-10 profile discount. A win against the Patriots would add a layer of attractiveness, but it will be far from a leisurely stroll. Mason isn’t unbeatable at home, as evidenced by its 10-2 mark straight up in those affairs. However, being ranked No. 25 nationally in eFG offense over the past month and willing to grind it out in the half court with the slow-paced Flyers, the Patriots could undercut the opposition, assuming star cylinder splasher Darius Maddox (ankle) plays. Keep in mind, GMU has shot 38.1% from the arc over the past 30 days.
Duke (-6.5) at Miami (+300 ML)
Upset Scale: 3.5
Some teams have your number. That’s the case in recent bouts between Duke and Miami. The SoFlo reps have logged measurable success against the dudes from Durham. The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in the last five entanglements. On top of that, they’re 6-3-1 ATS over their past 10 home games. Yes, Jim Larranaga’s club has been a massive disappointment. Over the past month, Miami is No. 102 overall, per BartTorvik, while checking in at 245-plus in eFG offense and eFG defense. The Canes also have surrendered an appalling 38.1% on 3s. Duke’s Jared McCain, coming off eight triples at Florida State, could continue to exhibit fiery fingers. Still, the Blue Devils are just No. 131 in eFG defense on the road this season and are 3-6-1 ATS away, including 1-2 ATS in their last three visits to Miami. Call it a gut feeling, but if Nijel Pack (various injuries) can go, Miami hangs tough.
Illinois (-7.5) at Penn State (+270 ML)
Upset Scale: 2
C’mon, Evans. Only 2 on the Upset Scale? Objectivity, son. OBJECTIVITY! Pushing bias aside, the Illini are one of the worst possible matchups for Penn State. They’re big. They’re athletic. And they are capable of humiliating teams on the glass, particularly generating second-chance opportunities. They also haven’t struggled away from Champaign, tallying a 4-4 record straight up. The 13th-best team over the last month according to BartTorvik, the I-L-L have registered an obscene 1.275 points per possession. To be fair, their defensive efforts protecting the rim have diminished, but against a PSU group that’s 230-plus in rebounding percentage, that insufficiency may not matter. Coleman Hawkins, who can play practically every position for the Orange and Blue and is a front-runner for Big Ten DPOY, is a matchup problem. Throw in Nittany Lions leading scorer Kanye Clary’s mysterious team absence, and Illinois, in theory, should win by 10-plus.
*Final tally on Wednesday: 2-1 ATS. Duke covered with ease. Illinois inexplicably blew an 8-point lead with 35 seconds remaining in a devastating loss to Penn State. And Dayton was snakebitten by George Mason.