Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — SGP: Iowa State +14.5, Houston ML (+120, DK w/profit boost)
Sharpen those spurs. Saddle the horse. And slip on your favorite pair of chaps. The rodeo inside Fertitta Center is the biggest of Big Monday matchups. Colossal. Monster. Huge. Whatever the description, it doesn’t do the matchup of NET top-10 teams justice, especially with a league title on the line.
Yee-frickin’-haw, betting partner!
As mentioned in the latest futures piece, Iowa State has sizzled over the past month. During that stretch, the Cyclones are No. 3 nationally, according to BartTorvik’s metrics, and they rank only behind, coincidentally, Houston and Purdue. They’ve grabbed numerous offensive boards, ripped chords from outside and defended staunchly. Most impressively, they’re 4-3 straight up away from Ames, securing resume-boosting wins at Texas, TCU and Cincinnati. Also top-30 among all D-1 teams in assists-to-field goals made, they showcase few weaknesses.
Houston, however, is a voracious foe who taxes any who dare cross its path.
The insatiable Cougars are undefeated at home — an impeccable 14-0. The Big 12 leader exhausts visitors with white-on-rice pressure and relentless attacks on the offensive glass. Those efforts explain why they’re one of the nation’s best in turnover percentage defense (24.9% of possessions) and generating second chances (39.2% of possessions).
They also mask glaring scoring flaws. Want to sleep like a baby tonight? Attempt to play all 40 minutes against a Kelvin Sampson-coached team. The calories expended would cause anyone to faceplant from exhaustion.
Yes, Iowa State’s statistical incongruence with its road performance is puzzling. The away record is nice, but it slots an uninspiring No. 138 in eFG offense and No. 232 in eFG defense. Again, contradictory.
Ultimately, whoever gains the upper hand in the strength-on-strength categories (e.g. turnovers forced and offensive rebounds) will escape with a victory. A supporter of occasionally living in the middle, I’m all about employing that madness in what should be a fairly low possession battle royale. Keep in mind that both schools are 230-plus in adjusted tempo since mid-January.
Giddy up.
Season record: 1-3, -2.20 units
BONUS TIME — SGP: Virginia +13.5, Virginia Tech +5.5, OVER 116.5 (+100, MGM)