The ground may be blanketed with a thick layer of the white stuff, but March is right around the corner. With the MADNESS wafting in the air, Brad’s Bracket Big Board is working overtime in an attempt to accurately predict who’s in and who’s out of this year’s NCAA Tournament field. As a companion, he’ll serve hoop heads with a recap of what transpired over the busy weekend. Who’s moving up? Read below.
Iowa State Cyclones: +425 to reach Final Four (DK), +2500 to win title (MGM)
On the Fujita Scale of tornado intensity, the Cyclones are an F4. Cars are tossed. Rickety structures are wiped from their foundations. And large missiles (Telephone poles? Cows? That magnum champagne bottle?) are rocketed through the air. It’s accurate to say those who attempt to challenge the cataclysm are handed Ls.
Just look at the destructive path Iowa State has levied. Over the past month, the Cyclones own six Quad 1 wins, a stellar 4-3 record in true road games and the No. 3 overall spot, per Bart Torvik, trailing only Purdue and Houston in the category. Damaging State, indeed.
T.J. Otzelberger’s bunch could climb as high as a No. 2 seed. With an enormous road date at Houston looming and additional quality win opportunities on the horizon (Oklahoma, at UCF, BYU, Big 12 tourney), they could spin quite the resume. Defensive pressure (No. 2 in TO% nationally), marksmanship from outside (35.3 3PT%) and tenacity on the offensive glass (33.0 OR%) make Iowa State a bona fide Final Four contender, no matter the draw.
San Diego State Aztecs: +2000 to reach Final Four (FD), +12500 to win title (CZR)
Arguably the biggest takeaway from this year’s Selection Committee mockumentary is the respect it doled out for the Mountain West. Yes, the league — whether analyzing KenPom, BartTorvik or other analytic sites — tucks behind the usual Power Six, but it’s a conference that could generate six bids, with the front-runner Aztecs very much included.
If you want to relive all the excitement at Viejas this evening, here are the highlights:#GoAztecs pic.twitter.com/M8kGYnwjQJ
— San Diego State Men's Basketball (@Aztec_MBB) February 17, 2024
With the projected profile of a No. 4 seed, Brian Dutcher’s warriors are a force to be taken seriously. Yes, their No. 140 rankings in eFG offense and defense the past 30 days raise concern, but with a legit game-overtaker in Jaedon LeDee and terrific complementary weapons in Lamont Butler, Reese Waters and Darrion Trammell, last year’s Final Four participant is on a warpath to possibly scoring a No. 3 seed.
The Aztecs’ top-15 strength of schedule will do wonders come Selection Sunday. And that number is likely to climb with three of their next four games away from Viejas Arena (at Utah State, at Fresno State, at UNLV).
Kentucky Wildcats: +600 to reach Final Four (DK), +3000 to win title (FD)
For all the Big Blue Nation zealots who somehow feel that this scribe is a MAJOR HATER, this entirely fair perspective is for your consumption. Curb your passionate skewering for at least two minutes.
The Wildcats, repeatedly lampooned due to their subpar defensive efforts, silenced even the most skeptical critics on Saturday with a convincing road victory at Auburn. Holding the Tigers to a miserable 0.88 points per possession is a giant leap in the right direction.
Netting over 40 percent from three and averaging 1.205 points per possession (No. 7 in the game) on the season, Kentucky didn’t have many doubts regarding its scoring abilities. The offense flies high, soaring to stratospheric heights inside or out. The defense, overly forgiving for much of the season, was always the biggest question mark. Maybe the needed shift has finally occurred.
Coach Cal’s team doesn’t sport a mind-blowing resume by any stretch. With only three Quad 1 wins and a deflating home defeat to UNC-Wilmington (a bad Quad 3 loss), UK profiles as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed. The good news: It still has three golden opportunities (vs. Alabama, at Mississippi State, at Tennessee) or more (SEC Tournament) to shine the brass tacks.
Regardless of where the Wildcats land, their peak potential is downright spine tingling.