One last dance. In a record-setting season for viewership, college basketball crowns its champ on Monday night inside Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Before the confetti falls and “One Shining Moment” plays, where is Brad Evans stacking his greenbacks? Read his betting thoughts below.
The Pick: SGP - Michigan -2.5, Game OVER 134.5 (+100, DraftKings w/boost)
And then there were two.
After all the hype and hoopla of the semifinal matchups, respectively against Illinois and Arizona, UConn and Michigan have separated themselves from the pack.
The Huskies largely controlled the Illini from beginning to the final buzzer, nailing an uncharacteristic number of threes (12) for a team that entered Saturday shooting under 28 percent from distance in its last eight games. Benefiting enormously from Illinois’ squandered opportunities from close range while clogging pass lanes and limiting Brad Underwood’s club to only three assists, UConn’s impressive conquering nearly mirrored its first dispatching of the Illini inside Madison Square Garden in late November. And for this Orange and Blue enthusiast the hurt endured was equivalent to putting hand-in-blender.
Arizona fans can empathize.
Michigan’s utter demolition of the Wildcats from tip-to-end was arguably the most one-sided drubbing in Final Four history. For a game hyped to be one of the most spectacular matchups in NCAA Tournament history, the slaughter witnessed was practically unimaginable. Wolverines leading scorer Yaxel Lendeborg’s MCL sprain suffered early in the first half derailed nothing. He powered through the pain and nailed a pair of second-half threes as Aday Mara, Trey McKenney and others rendered Arizona -- a team with quite possibly the best starting five in the game -- completely useless. As a collective, the Wolverines tallied a spectacular 1.17 points per possession, netting 44.4% from three.
For the whole enchilada Monday night, Dusty May’s mighty men are heavy favorites (-7.5). Can they actually end the Big Ten’s 26-year title drought?
All evidence may point to Michigan in a potential romp, but it’s unwise to assume anything against UConn. Danny Hurley is a madman after all -- a brilliant basketball scientist who somehow has mixed the right formulas to win despite often being outclassed in multiple categories. The school’s epic 19-point comeback win over Duke provided proof.
On paper, the Huskies rank outside the top 90 in effective field-goal percentage offense and effective field-goal percentage defense. With Michigan 168-spots higher in eFG% offense and 19 notches ahead in eFG% defense, it owns distinct advantages. In their last 10 games, the Wolverines have tallied a blistering 57.3% from two and 40.8% from three while only giving up 44.9% and 33.2% in the areas defensively.
The biggest keys for a UM cover is containing Tarris Reed in the interior while fighting through screens to challenge UConn threes. If Reed bangs the boards and feasts on second chances as Braylon Mullins, Alex Karaban and Solo Ball plunge outside daggers, another title returning to Stoors is a distinct possibility.
Lendeborg’s health is an immeasurable factor. Given his steadfast drive, it seems inevitable he’ll suit up, but how effective he’ll be on a very tender knee is anyone’s best guess. Still, if Aday Mara and Morez Johnson punish in the paint and hold Reed in check, Huskies gunners, who’ve shot an unexciting 30.2% from three in their last nine games, will have to channel Reggie Miller circa ‘96 to compete.
As seen on the TBS broadcast, May sat court-side studiously scouting UConn against Illinois. Coaches rarely, if ever, are willing to leave their teams unattended in big-stage moments. His mental notes, however, could come in handy against an overachieving opponent.
Bottom line: Michigan is mightier. More balanced and effective, it should finally get the Big Ten off its title schneid. UConn will surely try to grind the pace in an attempt to frustrate and mitigate an adversary determined to race down the track. It may have some success doing so in some instances, but, as this often-wrong scribe argued in late December, the Fightin’ Chris Weber’s are an unstoppable wagon. Hell, their average margin of victory this NCAA Tournament is a ridiculous 21.6 points.
Like with Indiana in football, the Big Ten hoists the hardware in hoops.