The stage is set in Indianapolis. Four schools with rich basketball traditions. Four schools with national title goals. Four schools with extremely loyal fanbases. Serving the betting masses, here are the Big Noise’s quick-hitting thoughts on college basketball’s marquee event.
UConn/Illinois
The Pick: Illinois -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Trying to bury the bias and speak as objectively as possible, this owner of approximately 147 pieces of Illinois merchandise believes the Orange and Blue will exact their REVENGE.
In the season’s first matchup against UConn inside a very partisan Madison Square Garden, Brad Underwood was still tinkering with the right lineup configuration. In that game, a 13-point win for Danny Hurley's dudes, now projected NBA lottery pick Keaton Wagler made a minimal impact over 13 uneventful minutes. Andrej Stojakovic, who has become an indispensable sixth man, scored only three points. And key glue guy Jake Davis, who is currently in the starting lineup, played only nine meaningless minutes. At that juncture in the early season, UConn was No. 3 overall nationally on BartTorvik. A rough-around-the-edges Illinois, meanwhile, was No. 20.
This month, the script has flipped on Torvik, as the Big Ten reps slot 14 spots higher than their Saturday adversary. Now, Wagler is the offensive focal point, operating as a facilitator and supreme scorer. Tack on the Illini’s size advantage along with UConn’s “mid” across-the-board efforts -- the Huskies rank outside the top 115 in effective field-goal percentage offense and defense in games played this month -- and a clear advantage comes into focus.
With Tarris Reed lurking, commanding the glass will be paramount for Illinois, but unless Alex Karaban and Elite Eight hero Braylon Mullins are lights out from the perimeter, the Illini should reach their second title game this century.
Keep in mind, Indy less than two hours from the Illinois campus, meaning a tidal wave of orange is sure to splash the Lucas Oil stands.
I-L-L!!!
BONUS TIME: SGP - Illinois +1.5, Game 145.5u (+133, FanDuel)
Arizona/Michigan
The Pick: Arizona ML (+100, Caesars)
The ‘72 Dolphins squaring off against the ‘85 Bears. That’s the football equivalent of Arizona versus Michigan. As many have already argued, the bracket right-side national semifinal matchup is the de facto title game. No offense to Underwood and his wonderfully psychotic counterpart.
Arizona arguably features the best starting five in the game. Motiejus Krivas, Koa Peat, Ivan Kharchenkov, Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley possess few, if any, weaknesses as a collective. Tobe Awaka and Anthony Dell'Orso are also potent off-the-bench pieces. The group consistently shined under the spotlight in monster matchups during the regular season. Most emphatically, they coasted to sweat-free victories over LIU, Utah State, Arkansas and Purdue on the road to Circle City. No surprise, the Wildcats are No. 1 overall on Torvik this month, slotting top 50 in effective field-goal percentage offense and defense. Tremendous on the glass, suffocating on D, reliable at the charity stripe and effective from three, they have zero flaws.
Michigan is nearly as impactful everywhere. Yaxel Lendeborg has taken his game to the maxel this NCAA Tournament, scoring at least 23 points in three straight. Point man Elliott Cadeau has sliced and diced sets repeatedly. Meanwhile, Morez Johnson and stretchy Spaniard Aday Mara have punished opponents in the paint. At No. 6 overall on Torvik in their last eight games, the Wolverines are an incredibly balanced bunch.
Essentially, 50/50 balls, turnovers and arc splashes will presumably determine who marches on to Monday’s title matchup. This season, Arizona has repeatedly delivered in pressure packed moments (see the Iowa State game in the Big 12 title game). It has the size, skills and leadership to deliver on the center stage yet again.
Plus odds on the ML? Say what?!
In what should be an engine-revving game for the ages, Bear Down.
BONUS TIME: SGP - Arizona +10.5, Michigan +10.5, Game 145.5u, Brayden Burries 2+ threes made (+130, DraftKings)