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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: The man on Madden.
The pick — Saquon Barkley UNDER 1,500.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
Curses are made to be broken. See the Chicago Cubs in 2016. Keep roasting in hell, Billy Goat.
When it comes to the NFL, many gamers fully believe in the “Madden” video game’s sinister spell. According to subscribers, whoever graces the cover is bound to suffer an irreversible curse, enduring a season-sapping injury, major statistical slump or possibly something much worse.
Though Tom Brady, Calvin Johnson and others offer counterarguments, the perceived hex damaged the reputations of vibrant stars Daunte Culpepper, Shaun Alexander, Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. That’s quite the list.
The most recent victim is 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, who, as the game’s cover athlete last year, experienced a 2024 season completely derailed by bilateral Achilles tendonitis. As a result, he played just four games and finished RB72 in total fantasy points scored in 0.5 PPR formats. The person who drafted him No. 1 overall in your league remains in therapy.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
This year, Mr. Reverse Hurdle — Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley — is featured on the cover. Will he add his name to a long list of Madden-influenced failures? Or will his exceptionalism continue coming off an all-time great campaign punctuated with a Super Bowl title?
Gamers demand answers.
Given the extraordinary feats the Eagles workhorse achieved last season, numerical regression seems inevitable.
The RB1 of 1s in fantasy points per game joined an exclusive nine-man club of players to rush for 2,000 or more yards in a single season. Barkley also finished top-12 among all RBs in YAC per attempt (3.32, RB12), total missed tackles forced (83, RB2) and total yards created (1,203, RB7). Again, remarkable.
Yes, the Saquads are bound to flex. Philly features a top-five offensive line and THE easiest projected fantasy strength of schedule for a running back. Presumably on another sky-high per game volume (23.7 touches per game in ‘24), he’s a strong candidate to at least finish inside the position’s top five for fantasy.
However, as Barkley buyers in previous years fully realize, the prized rusher isn’t immune from the injury imp’s poisonous bite. Snacked on repeatedly in his career, he suited up in 14 or more games in only four of seven regular seasons. Last year’s 378 accumulated touches are quite worrisome.
Off 2024’s glorious peak, the rushing king’s decline feels predictable. ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Barkley for 1,367 ground yards in 14 games. His season-long rushing yards prop at 1,500.5 is a bit bullish.
Give this bettor the UNDER.
And, for the record, curses don’t exist, unless you’re a Kennedy.