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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. Hallelujah! In an attempt to uncover values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: Ashton Jeanty rushing yards.
The pick — Ashton Jeanty OVER 999.5 rushing yards (-130, ESPN Bet)
On rare occasions, a prop smacks gamers squarely in the face.
Once the shock, amazement and wonderful possibilities wear off, the second-guessing promptly begins. Does he have a hidden injury? Is the coaching staff determined to keep the action figure unboxed? Are the gambling gods purposely trying to break the breadbasket?
Admiral Ackbar plays on repeat in your head.
Jeanty’s initial rushing yards over/under elicits precisely that.
Seemingly too good to be true, the offering above is worth the months-long money tie-up. Sure, you could gain interest investing in the unpredictable stock market or turn a quick buck on the latest meme coin, but the long-term speculation is likely worth it.
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Last season with Boise State, Jeanty achieved juggernaut status. He set the pace among all FBS running backs in total YAC, YAC per attempt (5.25), total missed tackles (152) and runs of 15 or more yards (36). Most godlike, he generated 75.9% of his yards after initial contact. At 5-foot-8 and 211 pounds, the pint-sized punisher is a wrecking ball.
Operating in a Pete Carroll offense that will almost surely call “run” nearly 55% of the time and carrying the rock behind an improved Raiders offensive line, Jeanty is a good bet to secure 270 or more rushing attempts. Assuming he averages better than 3.70 yards per carry and 58.8 yards per game, Las Vegas’ rookie star should shine brightly starting Week 1.
Debbie Downers will ridiculously question his Boise roots. The Mountain West participant is hardly Lake Superior State. Jeanty’s 104 rushing yards amassed last season against Penn State — a run defense which finished No. 16 among FBS schools in run D efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus — offered a preview of what's to come. So do his off-the-chart analytics.
The insatiable and menacing injury imp always lurks, but even if he played only 13 games in his inaugural campaign, Jeanty should race past the 1,000-yard mark. ESPN's Mike Clay projects the flash first-rounder to total 1,125 rushing yards in 15 games. That feels right.
Chug a half-full glass. And wear a cup just in case it goes terribly wrong.