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Each year the seal is inevitably broken.
With college basketball over and baseball in full swing, this NBA/NHL ambivalent bettor is willing to stick a wet finger into the air in a feeble attempt of reading exactly how NFL general managers will approach this year’s bumper crop of top prospects.
In an exercise akin to predicting the stock market (currently determined daily by bodily movements emitting from the Oval Office), this dice roller willingly took the gamble.
Already pot-committed on a couple of props, here is how this pigskin-craved bettor wagered on this year’s NFL Draft. If they hit, no bro hugs from Roger Goodell are required.
The season’s long journey of football betting begins once again.
UNDER 2.5 running backs drafted in Round 1 (-150, ESPN Bet)
“What’s old is new again” is a timeless adage that best applies to the running back position. Once considered a discount rack-only option, tugboats are again en vogue thanks in large part to Philadelphia’s reliance on Saquon Barkley during its unmitigated 2024 title run.
This year’s RB class is Grand Canyon deep. Of course, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton will have their names called on the first night, but given the position’s abundance, rushing-minded decision makers are likely to hold off on investing until Day 2.
Rumors have circulated about Ohio State three-down product TreVeyon Henderson creeping into Round 1. He’s wonderfully skilled, but other prospects like Quinshon Judkins, Kaleb Johnson, Cam Skattebo and Dylan Sampson are similarly tiered.
Given the RB prospect depth, GM patience will likely be exercised as other pursuits are prioritized.
Broncos to draft running back in Round 1 (+135, DraftKings)
As any draftnik will tell you, the days preceding Round 1 are full of smoke screens. It’s the lying season where GMs and other team officials feed phony information to insiders and media mouthpieces for the sole purpose of deceiving those picking ahead of them. Every tidbit should be consumed with an entire mine of salt.
However, whether the info has come from beat writers, front office folks or Sean Payton himself, Denver has consistently expressed its desire to draft a running back.
Whether that happens Thursday or Friday is anyone’s best guess. My gut says if Hampton is still on the board at the Broncos’ No. 20 selection, the pick will be sent in immediately.
Payton has made his position affections publicly known. Are they misleading? That’s possible, but sometimes team officials tell it like it is.
With only Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime remaining on last season’s playoff roster, Denver sorely needs a legitimate three-down horse. This gambler is banking on Thunder acquiring a playmate straight away.
Jaxson Dart to be second quarterback drafted (+200, ESPN Bet)
After Cam Ward walks across the stage as Tennessee’s No. 1 overall pick, it’s a complete crapshoot which signal caller will have his name called next.
Shedeur Sanders to the Giants at No. 3 is very possible, but the Colorado product’s perceived worth is all over the map. Evaluators vary on where he’ll land, with his destinations ranging from top-five to early Round 2. The range of potential outcomes is that wide.
Reading between the lines, a QB-needy franchise or three may covet Dart more.
The Ole Miss product is regarded as a more refined passer. His quick release and track record of success on multi-platform throws are attractive. Last year in Lane Kiffin’s high-powered offense, Dart ranked top-six in big time throw rate and overall adjusted completion percentage, according to Pro Football Focus.
Yes, Dart is no slam-dunk prospect. Some scouts believe he only possesses average arm strength and touch on deep-ball throws. With his mobility and accuracy on intermediate throws, though, he could prove quite productive in a shotgun-based system.
The Saints are a curiosity at No. 9 in light of recent news about Derek Carr’s shoulder. The Steelers at No. 21 also have a glaring QB void. Sanders is the heavy favorite (-250, ESPN) to slot ahead of Dart, but Younger Deion isn’t definitively the better prospect.
There’s a reasonable chance Dart is the second passer of choice.
Other bets made
Shedeur Sanders UNDER pick 8.5 (+260, ESPN)
Raiders to draft RB in Round 1 (-110, DraftKings)
Dolphins to draft OL in Round 1 (+120, DraftKings)
Bills to draft DL/Edge in Round 1 (+105, DraftKings)