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Your bracket is bleeding — profusely. It’s time to regain pool investments lost. In an attempt to offer a helping hand, Brad Evans reassess NCAA Tournament futures with the Sweet 16 set. Below is the market that has his attention in the West Region.
The pick — Florida to make the Final Four (-130, BetMGM)
Without the steamroller-flattening, freshly laid asphalt and squishable opponents witnessed in the SEC Tournament, Florida has backers feeling somewhat uneasy.
Yes, the No. 1 seed defeated Norfolk State by 26 points and overcame a minutes-long deficit against UConn — a 77-75 triumph that predictably had Danny Hurley firing off four-letter expletives walking up the tunnel — but neither victory was overwhelmingly convincing.
Obviously, tailing Maryland, Texas Tech or Arkansas out West could yield more fruit. However, this Gators backer is most confident the favorite will reach the Riverwalk.
Win today, 🐊! https://t.co/J6sDDUQJc0
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) March 23, 2025
Florida is still the best team in the region by a sizable sum. At No. 3 overall on BartTorvik over the last month, it checks in at No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, churning out an outlandish 1.353 points per possession.
In those games, the Gators also shot 58.0% on 2-pointers and 37.1% on 3s. That's even more impressive considering over 45% of UF’s shots have come along the arc. Steady carpet bombings from Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin have reduced teams to rubble.
Even when outside shots have drawn iron, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh have cleaned up on second chances. In its last nine games, Florida has secured a second chance on 40.4% of its possessions.
Not to be forgotten, Will Richard has been a buffet of numbers. In two NCAA Tournament contests, he has accumulated 23 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and four steals.
With solid depth and arguably the best shotmaker in the college game (Clayton), the Gators remain a national title front-runner for myriad reasons.
With Florida at No. 108 in effective field goal percentage defense, some will question its guarding abilities. The doubts are somewhat warranted, but with the Gators only allowing 31.8% 3-point shooting, the concern level is slightly exaggerated.
Maryland is the stiffest challenge remaining in the region for Todd Golden’s squad. The Terps’ outstanding frontcourt and formidable outside shooters will push Florida. Still, pound for pound, UF is a truly elite team that this gambler continues to believe is the one to beat.
Keep chompin’.