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The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
Washington Commanders (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Date: Sunday, January 26
Time: 3 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
1. A.J. Brown OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Boogie on down with Brown. Seemingly exiled to Elba so far during the playoffs (three receptions, 24 yards), Philadelphia’s WR1 is hoping to once again tap into his “Inner Excellence.” Sunday seems like the ideal opportunity to stiff-arm the schneid.
BetAlytics projects Brown to finish well north of the set number, prognosticating 67.06 receiving yards. It’s highly conceivable. In two previous matchups against Washington, he tallied 65 and 97 receiving yards. In fact, he cashed the OVER in 10 of 15 regular-season games and finished top-10 in yards per route run, yards per target and yards per reception among all qualifying wide receivers.
Also enhancing the confidence in Brown: He’ll mostly face Marshon Lattimore, the veteran cornerback who has given up a healthy 103.0 passer rating to his assignments this season. Equally encouraging is the Commanders’ No. 16 ranking in pass EPA defense over the past five weeks. Sixteen WRs hit the OVER on 61.5 yards against Washington in the regular season.
Bank on Brown escaping his island imprisonment and regaining his downfield power.
BetAlytics grade: B-
2. Dyami Brown 50+ receiving yards (+115, BetMGM)
Sticking with the get-down-with-Brown theme, the Commanders’ version is certainly worth a lucrative investment. Flourishing over the past few weeks, the receiving X-factor has earned Jayden Daniels’ trust, especially on high-arcing chucks outside the numbers.
The last time Brown squared off against the NFC East rival in Week 16, he reeled in four of five passes for 56 yards, and he has cashed the over in three of his last four games. A replication is completely believable. Yes, Philly is a laudable No. 5 in pass EPA defense over the last five weeks, but 19 WRs in the regular season cracked the 50-yard mark against the Eagles.
Brown is expected to see a heavy dose of “Big Play” Darius Slay, a DB who allowed only a 77.2 passer rating and a 50.6% catch rate this season, but with the Washington wideout’s terrifically consistent production down the season’s homestretch, he’s hard to pass up at plus money. Throw in the possibility of the Commanders playing catch-up at some point, and the odds of a winner only increase.
Make us dollars, Dyami.
BetAlytics grade: C+
3. Jamison Crowder OVER 1.5 receptions (+115, BetMGM)
Mixing Skippy with Sriracha is certainly an unusual combination. However, the spicy addition to a favorite cracker spread is surprisingly delicious.
Betting the OVER on a diminutive receiver who averages just 11.4 routes per game may also seem unappetizing, but taste buds are tickled when understanding Crowder’s utilization and reliability in clutch situations. In four of his last six games, the Washington wideout has hauled in at least two passes, including two catches against the Eagles in Week 16.
With a win probability above 50% and an edge of +4.33 according to BetAlytics, the above prop at plus money isn’t unattractive. Crowder’s projected one-on-one matchup with Cooper DeJean is also promising. This season, the Eagles’ rookie slot DB has surrendered a 71.1% catch rate to his assignments.
Likely featured in third-down packages, look for Crowder to corral at least a couple of catches.
BetAlytics grade: B+
NO ANALYSIS SGP PLAY — Commanders +10.5, Saquon Barkley anytime TD, Jayden Daniels 40+ rushing yards (+170, DraftKings)
Season record: 47-53, -4.43 units