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The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. SGP: Ravens +3.5, Lamar Jackson 40+ rushing yards at Bills (+114, DraftKings)
Saquon Barkley is certainly in the discussion, but in this writer’s opinion, there is no more electric open-field runner than Action Jackson. His start/stop moves, blazing wheels and undressing jukes routinely drop jaws. During the regular season, he averaged a sizable 8.2 rushing attempts per game and a league-best 53.8 rushing yards per contest. Including last week’s exhaustive 15 carries for 81 yards against the division rival Steelers, the Ravens quarterback has raced past the 40-yard mark five times in his last six games. Since Week 14, Buffalo has led the NFL pack in EPA rush defense. Overall, only two QBs have passed the needed threshold against them — and Jackson, in Week 4, was conveniently one of them. Throw in Baltimore staying within a field goal, and plus money is achieved. Tasty.
BetAlytics grade: B-
2. Puka Nacua OVER 2.5 rushing yards at Eagles (-110, BetMGM)
One stinkin’ in-motion handoff is all we need, Sean McVay. In a game in which the Rams must pull out all the stops to spring the upset, feeding Nacua in the run game appears likely. Whether on an end-around, simple jet sweep or backward pass, Los Angeles’ do-it-all wide receiver should flash his versatility. In last week's convincing dismissal of the Vikings, he carried the rock once for seven yards. The effort marked the fourth time in six games he registered at least a single rush attempt for three yards or more. Given his remarkably effective YAC racks, Nacua is bound to fall forward for what’s required if given the opportunity. Philadelphia is No. 5 in rush EPA defense since Week 14. However, five wideouts logged three rushing yards or more against them in the regular season. Get creative, McVay.
3. SGP: Commanders +17.5; Jared Goff 225+ passing yds, 2+ passing touchdowns (+112, DraftKings)
Tricking the sportsbook algo is a 101-level strategy. To reduce the juice and get seduced by it, adding a negative correlated market to a multi-legger is always recommended. Goff should twirl a bevy of accurate tight spirals against a Washington secondary that’s a mediocre No. 18 in pass EPA defense since Week 14. In 19 total games, the Commanders have surrendered 26 passing touchdowns. Overall, eight QBs tossed two or more end-zone strikes against them. In a game with a bonkers 55.5 projected total, Goff’s odds of adding his name to the list are significant. The fourth-most accurate QB in red-zone situations according to PlayerProfiler, the Lions QB has connected on two or more air scores in five of his last six games. Tacking on Washington staying within three TDs only ramps the SGP’s sex appeal.
BetAlytics grade: B+
4. Dyami Brown OVER 29.5 receiving yards at Lions (-115, BetMGM)
Those who invested in Brown as a sure-to-pan-out deep sleeper at any juncture this past fantasy football season promptly received the Charlie Brown treatment. Yep, you “got a rock.” He barely made a peep. His regular-season advanced analytics profile is about as appetizing as unseasoned tofu served with a side of hardtack. However, as witnessed last week, Brown has always possessed quality field-stretching skills. Against Tampa Bay, he broke through with five receptions for 89 yards to send his confidence — and Jayden Daniels’ belief in him — soaring. Will the momentum from the wild-card round carry over? It’s very possible. The matchup alone is enticing. Detroit ranks No. 26 in pass EPA D since Week 14. Most alluring is the Lions having allowed THE most receiving yards to WRs in the regular season. Astonishingly, 27 wideouts tallied 30 yards against them. Slated to see a ton of Amik Robertson in coverage (27th-most yards allowed), Brown again shocks the system.
BetAlytics grade: C+
5. C.J. Stroud OVER 13.5 rushing yards at Chiefs (-115, DraftKings)
You’re a heavy underdog on the road in arguably the NFL’s loudest venue against a pass rush that ranks No. 5 in pocket pressure rate (26.1%). Before the game, Stroud better slug an extra Prime or three to boost the bolt. Understanding the single-elimination stakes and probable negative game script, an investment in the Texans QB scurrying on the ground seems wise. When it came to calling his own number in the regular season, Stroud wasn’t the most active. However, on his 3.5 scrambles per game, he averaged 13.7 rushing yards per contest. Overall, he sprinted for 14 or more ground yards nine times in 17 games, and in the teams’ first clash in Week 16, he dashed for 23 rushing yards in a 27-19 loss at Kansas City. Nine QBs churned for the required yards against the Chiefs in the regular season. In their playoff opener, the reigning Super Bowl champs will sit back in coverage and allow Stroud’s legs to spin at least 2-4 times.
BetAlytics grade: B-
Season record: 45-49, -3.43 units