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The pick — Lamar Jackson to win Super Bowl MVP (+700, BetMGM)
The master of the macabre and arguably Baltimore’s most famous interred resident, Edgar Allen Poe has his fingerprints all over the local NFL franchise. From the team’s nickname to its mascot, the legendary wordsmith’s American Gothic reach profusely bleeds.
To his opponents, Lamar Jackson is a Poe-worthy villain hellbent on committing unspeakable on-field acts. Whether making deep-ball connections with Rashod Bateman or devouring yards on unscripted scrambles, the two-time NFL MVP simply wreaks havoc everywhere. Frankensteinian running back Derrick Henry’s presence only enhances Jackson’s deadliness.
This season, the Ravens quarterback has again posted regular-season numbers worthy of league MVP honors.
In 17 games, Jackson finished top-10 in air yards per attempt (8.7), red-zone completion percentage (70.3%), passer rating against zone (123.5) and QB rushing yards per game (53.5). His No. 5 standing in big-time throw rate (6.0%), as tracked by Pro Football Focus, only further shines the sterling profile.
POLL DANCING!
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) January 7, 2025
Who is the best bet to win Super Bowl MVP?
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The masses may again be fixated on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs — a certain pop star has some influence — but bar none, the best postseason bet on the board is Jackson for Super Bowl MVP. The +700 next to his name at BetMGM pounds the pulse like a heart-racing jump scare.
If there's a team best equipped to dethrone the Kansas City dynasty, it’s Baltimore. Once a laughing stock defensively against the pass, the Ravens have silenced even the harshest critics, spackling once-gaping holes on the back end.
Defensive coordinator Zach Orr’s alterations in the secondary — most notably moving Marlon Humphrey from the slot to outside — have unleashed a monster. Most shockingly, Baltimore ranks No. 1 since Week 10 in dropback EPA defense. Also second only to Buffalo according to EPA per play data on offense, the Ravens enter the postseason with the most-balanced advanced metrics resume of any team over the regular season's second half.
What makes this wager most appealing is the added value. If you believe Baltimore is the team to beat, tossing a few pesos on Jackson to win Super Bowl MVP generates an additional +100 odds compared to the squad simply taking the grand prize in New Orleans.
Sure, Henry or some random defensive player has a chance to hoist the hardware, but 13 of the last 17 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. A 76.5% hit rate doesn’t guarantee anything, but even this dunderhead knows the odds of a passer taking the top honor are substantial.
John Harbaugh and his Ravens fully realize the title goes through Kansas City. Last year’s 17-10 road defeat to Andy Reid’s Chiefs in the AFC championship game still haunts them.
However, quote the Raven nevermore. The Baltimore QB is an attractive investment.
This “Tell Tale Heart” beats for Jackson — especially at a potentially handsome payout.