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Tampa Bay Lightning (20-13-2) at Los Angeles Kings (22-10-5)
Date: Saturday, January 4
Time: 9 p.m. ET
The pick — Kings ML (-120, BetMGM)
I ended the new year on a high note while freezing my toes off at the Winter Classic, as I watched the Blues manhandle the Blackhawks at Wrigley Field in one of the coolest experiences of my lifetime. So let’s keep the good vibes rolling into 2025.
The Kings returned from a seven-game Eastern road trip last week and rattled off three straight wins at home. On Saturday, they welcome a Tampa Bay squad that is on a two-game losing streak after falling 5-2 at home against Montreal last Sunday and 2-1 against the Sharks in San Jose on Thursday. Before that rough patch, the Lightning had won six of seven contests.
Analytically, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles are fairly even. Both teams rank in the top 10 in xGoals and goal differential, and they’re in the top two in expected goals against. That last figure is the reason why I also like the UNDER on six total goals (-120), so a parlay with a win by the home squad will net you roughly a +200 number.
What sways me in favor of the Kings is their superior expected goal differential. Also, their win streak and the visitors’ busy weekend (the Lightning play the Ducks in Anaheim on Sunday night) give me assurance that L.A. is the play on Saturday night.
Season record: 12-12-2, +1.50 units