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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 66.5 receiving yards at Rams (-115, BetMGM)
Eliminated from playoff contention, JSN and the Seahawks are playing for end-of-season pride. Before the umbrella drinks flow, the breakout slot man should come up triple cherries against a Los Angeles squad planning to rest several starters. Even with his team fully operational, Sean McVay’s Rams have been suspect, at best, in defending the pass. Since Week 13, they rank No. 18 in pass EPA defense. Overall, 14 wide receivers have eclipsed 67 yards against them, including Smith-Njigba who had 180 yards in Week 9. Likely to draw cornerback Quentin Lake in coverage, the Ohio State product should chew up chunk gains. The slot DB has allowed a 64.6 catch percentage and the 33rd-most yards (503) of any pass defender. Averaging a substantial 8.3 targets per game, Smith-Njigba has set the pace in total YAC and is No. 5 in total route wins among all WRs. Before the curtain drops on Seattle’s season, JSN delivers one more ovation-worthy performance.
BetAlytics grade: B-
2. George Pickens OVER 25.5 yards longest catch vs. Bengals (-110, BetMGM)
Talk about line value. At almost every sportsbook, the above number is two yards higher. This is why shopping around is always recommended. The Steelers have clinched a playoff berth, but the AFC North title is still in play. And with the Bengals in a must-win situation, Pittsburgh backups should remain holding helmets on the sideline. The Russell Wilson-to-Pickens moon-ball connection is a match on par with tacos and tequila. High-hanging passes chucked toward a receiver with Gumby-like adjustment skills is a delightful match. This season, Pittsburgh’s WR1 has caught a pass for 26 or more yards 13 times, nine of the receptions coming with Wilson at the controls. Pickens ranks No. 4 in total deep-ball targets (27), No. 18 in average depth of target (13.5) and No. 16 in total air yards (1312). What’s also encouraging is Cincinnati having surrendered the sixth-most air yards. With Pickens’ primary projected assignment of CB Cameron Taylor-Britt, who has yielded the second-most receiving yards (751) of any DB, the cash chances soar.
BetAlytics grade: C+
3. SGP: Mike Evans 80+ receiving yards, anytime touchdown; Buccaneers ML vs. Saints (+111, Caesars)
Playoff ambitions combined with personal contract incentives are supreme driving forces. Those provocations are no doubt pushing Evans in Week 18. Back up the truck, gamers. A win against the sorrowful Saints rubber-stamps a Buccaneers playoff berth. As for the future Hall of Famer, five receptions and 85 yards unlock a $3 million contract bonus. Even better, two touchdowns earn him an additional $666,000. Devilish. In Week 6 against New Orleans, Evans caught only two passes for 34 yards and no scores. However, he squared off mostly with Paulson Adebo, a defender who suffered a season-ending broken femur in mid-October. Over the last five weeks, the Saints are No. 21 in pass EPA defense, and overall, six WRs have achieved both required feats in a game against them. In the second encounter against the Fleur-de-lis, my cousin should crush Kool-Aid McKinstry (95.0 passer rating allowed) en route to a handsome payday. This year’s family reunion is going to be lit.
4. Bo Nix OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Chiefs (-110, BetMGM)
Students from nearby UMKC are probably receiving one-game contracts to play for the Chiefs. With absolutely nothing at stake in Week 18, Andy Reid said he plans to sit starters. Against what could mirror a Week 3 preseason active roster, Nix should rip the hired ‘Roos a new one. He and the Broncos are at home with a postseason berth at stake. If it emerges victorious, Denver locks in the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoffs. In his first matchup against Kansas City No. 1s in Week 10, Nix hurled a pair of end-zone strikes in a 16-14 defeat. Considering the softened opponent, the rookie quarterback could cash backers by halftime. This season, he’s No. 10 in red-zone completion percentage, tossing at least a pair of TDs in six of his last seven games. Bo-lieve!
5. Bijan Robinson OVER 95.5 rushing yards vs. Panthers (-115, BetMGM)
Advocated by some follicly-challenged analyst last August to be the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts, Robinson will close out the season with a BANG! It’s highly unlikely the Falcons secure a playoff spot, but, yes, Lloyd Christmas, there’s still a chance. All that’s needed is an improbable Tampa Bay loss to New Orleans and a Falcons victory. Again, you have better chances of adhering to your get-in-shape New Year's resolution. Regardless, Bijan should boom. The Panthers have been a rock-bottom fixture in rush EPA defense the entire season. Since Week 13, they’ve allowed a mouthwatering 5.95 yards per carry and 174.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. Robinson ran for 95 yards on only 15 carries against Carolina in Week 6. With fleeting playoff hopes on the line, he crosses the century mark in the rematch.
BetAlytics grade: B-
Season record: 42-42, +0.33 units
BONUS TIME! Blake Corum OVER 56.5 rush yards vs. Seahawks (-110, BetMGM) - With the unmotivated Rams locked into their playoff seed, HC Sean McVay plans to treat Sunday's matchup against division nemesis Seattle as though it were Preseason Week 3. Earlier this week, the head honcho expressed his excitement over giving the former Michigan star an extended look in the Kyren Williams role, which means a minimum of 15 touches are likely. On 56 carries this season, Corum has sporadically flashed. His 2.41 YAC per attempt isn't earth shaking, but his 19.6% missed tackle rate is noteworthy. To their credit, the Seahawks have proven somewhat stiff versus the run in recent weeks. Over their last five games, they rank No. 7 in rush EPA D, allowing 4.05 yards per carry and 83.4 rush yards per game to RBs. However, 14 rushers have tallied at least 57 yards on the ground against them this season. Due to his increased evaluation and subsequent opportunity, the rookie rumbles.