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Sometimes you want to make a quick pitstop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Illinois vs. Oregon.
No. 22 Illinois (9-3, 1-1) at No. 9 Oregon (12-1, 1-1)
Date: Thursday, Jan. 2
Time: 10 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Several teams traveling westward along the Oregon Trail in the Dana Altman era have often died of cholera, dysentery and missed shots. For those who attempt to ford the Willamette near Eugene, a loss typically follows, no matter how well-supplied the parties are.
Brad Underwood hopes his league championship-aspiring Illini aren’t the latest victim.
With the calendar flipped to 2025, the Big Ten enters the bulk of its conference season. It’s a league completely up for grabs. Purdue was the preseason front-runner, but the Boilermakers have shown visible cracks. As the tightly compacted Big Ten title odds at BetMGM clearly show, it’s anyone’s best guess who finishes on top.
Thursday’s showdown in Eugene is just one of what will be many pivotal matchups in the behemoth B1G.
The pick — SGP: Illinois +7.5, Game UNDER 165.5 (+110, FanDuel)
As stated previously, this is the most talented Illinois team since Dee Brown and friends in 2005.
Future NBA lottery pick Kasparas Jakucionis is an outright arc assassin and supreme facilitator. Seven-foot Croatian Tomislav Ivisic is a dynamite rim protector who steadily knocks down shots inside and out. And Champaign native Kylan Boswell, who recorded the seventh triple-double in Illinois history last Sunday in a 117-64 win against Chicago State, is a do-it-all guard with a penchant for playing suffocating defense.
That trio and other key contributors are why the Orange and Blue are top-35 in offensive and defensive efficiency nationally.
The surprising Ducks, who are ranked No. 9 in the AP poll and inside the top 15 across metric sites (e.g. KenPom and BartTorvik), aren’t exactly foie gras. What they have accomplished so far is striking with neutral-court Feast Week wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama.
The upperclassmen-laden Oregon squad gets sound, across-the-board production. The Ducks are top-25 in offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and they’re shooting 75.0% on free throws, which is how 21.8% of their points are manufactured. In other words, they can salt away wins in tight games with clutch makes from the line.
The dense home-court forest at Matthew Knight Arena may be no more, but the late-night drama is bound to be thick. Both teams exhibit few weaknesses. However, Oregon, which is No. 188 in defensive rebounding percentage, can often be soft on the glass. Nate Bittle, Brandon Angel and TJ Bamba must effectively box out against an Illinois group that generates a second chance on a whopping 36.6% of its possessions.
If Illini 3-pointers fall at better than a 35% clip, they could steal one on the road. This season, 51% of their jacked shots have come from distance. Even if those attempts draw iron, corralled bonus opportunities could demoralize the Ducks.
In the end, this game is likely to be decided in the final moments. Illinois has struggled with closing out opponents in high-pressure situations — a hallmark of a young team. Unless the pubescent Illini have matured overnight, late-game execution is sure to play a determinative factor.
Building in a suitable cushion with the spread and total is the wisest approach. In what should be a contest comfortably played in the mid-to-high 70s, the SGP above is all about “safety first.”
Don’t sink, Illini.
Season record: 12-7, +4.99 units