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No. 5 Notre Dame (10-1) at USC (6-5)
Date: Saturday, November 30
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Notre Dame has one last chance to impress the College Football Playoff committee when it faces USC in Los Angeles on Saturday.
The Fighting Irish will be idle next week, as they’ll be monitoring what happens in conference championship games. A Notre Dame victory over the Trojans would unofficially secure a spot in the 12-team playoff, and the Irish most likely would host a first-round game in South Bend.
Outside of its Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has been on cruise control, often beating opponents by a hefty margin. Before getting upset by a currently 6-5 NIU, the Irish had a statement win at Texas A&M, which made the loss to a MAC school even more confusing.
Since then, Marcus Freeman’s team has gotten back on track, but not against the best competition.
ND’s best win other than beating Texas A&M was a seven-point victory at home against Louisville, which has had a disappointing season. The Irish took down another ACC team in Georgia Tech, but the Yellow Jackets were without injured QB Haynes King.
Some might point to Notre Dame’s 51-14 rout of Navy at the end of October and last Saturday’s 49-14 demolishing of Army as “good” wins because both military academies were undefeated at the time. However, the Irish jumped out to early leads against schools that rely on running the ball.
The pick — USC +7.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Notre Dame’s secondary will be tested for the first time since late September when it faced Louisville. The Irish will be without future NFL cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who suffered a season-ending hip injury last month.
USC has had a rocky first year in the Big Ten. The Trojans looked like a playoff contender when they pulled off a 27-20 upset of LSU in Week 1, but the grind of conference play hasn’t been kind to Lincoln Riley’s squad.
USC took three trips to the Eastern or Central time zone and lost each time against Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland despite having fourth-quarter leads in every game. The Trojans also led in the fourth quarter against Penn State and Washington only to fall in close contests, and all five of their defeats have been by seven points or fewer.
My biggest concern with backing USC is at quarterback, where Riley is currently playing his second-best QB. Miller Moss was benched for Jayden Maiava after the Washington loss and before the second bye week. However, I trust Riley as an offensive schemer to get the most out of any QB under center. Also, Maiava should have some confidence after back-to-back victories against Nebraska and UCLA the last two weeks.
The combination of Notre Dame being overvalued due to a soft schedule and the must-win nature of this game and USC being better than its record because of late-game bad luck leads me to a bet on the Trojans catching over a touchdown.
Season record: 18-17, -0.21 units