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The trimmings, the trappings and the BETS. Give yourself a reason to not engage in uncomfortable conversations with your Aunt Erma about her various health ailments. Fade or follow the follow my Thanksgiving Day Same Game Parlay. It’s entirely up to YOU!
The pick — SGP: David Montgomery anytime touchdown, Rico Dowdle 40+ rushing yards, Josh Jacobs 50+ rushing yards (+128, DraftKings)
David Montgomery anytime touchdown vs. Bears. You already knew. It’s practically MANDATORY a certain someone scores against his former team. On Tuesday, Dan Campbell laughed that he couldn't hold out Montgomery if he wanted to despite a shoulder setback. Dinged wing aside, bank on Knuckles to receive his usual 12-15 touch workload. This season, he’s found the end zone in nine of 11 games, totaling the sixth-most red-zone touches of any running back. Against a Bears defense that hasn’t earned its honey, Montgomery should get multiple cracks to splash six. Since Week 8, Chicago is a middling No. 17 in rush EPA defense, giving up 5.03 yards per carry, 131.8 rushing yards per game and four TDs to RBs. Seek REVENGE, Monty.
Rico Dowdle 40+ rushing yards vs. Giants. In a post-meal game sure to lull viewers to sleep, action is needed to keep onlookers awake. Let a Dowdle chase provide the necessary jolt. Finally Mike McCarthy’s featured back, the Cowboys rusher has gripped the pigskin via ground or air a minimum of 15 times in four of his last six games. Over that stretch, he’s amassed an impressive 3.25 YAC per attempt, which ranks No. 18 among qualifying RBs. Look for him to rack abundant yards after initial contact against the Giants, who are dreadful against the run. Over the past five weeks, they’re No. 28 in rush EPA defense, conceding 4.70 yards per carry and 131.8 rushing yards per contest. Over that stretch, seven RBs have blasted their way to 40 ground yards. Dowdle earns a turkey leg.
Josh Jacobs 50+ rushing yards vs. Dolphins. With temperatures expected to hover in the 20s at kickoff, the tropical-minded Dolphins will partake in a rare cold-weather game. Advantage, Jacobs. The Packers snow plow is perfectly constructed to inflict pain in the bitterness. On 68.1% of the team’s opportunity share, he ranks No. 4 in YAC per attempt (3.56) and No. 4 in missed tackles forced (46). Also, he’s tallied at least 50 ground yards in eight straight games and in nine of 10 contests on the year. Miami is a laudable No. 11 in rush EPA defense over the last five weeks, allowing an unsupportive 3.80 yards per carry and 61.6 rushing yards per game. In total nine running backs have crossed the 50-yard mark against them. Still, in a game made for a bruising back, Jacobs cracks pads on another likely 18-22 carry workload.
SGP season record: 13-18, +0.67 units