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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Najee Harris OVER 16.5 rushing attempts at Browns (-128, FanDuel)
A somewhat potent storm system traversing the Great Lakes region of the United States is expected to impact Thursday night’s black-and-blue battle between Pittsburgh and Cleveland. And, sorry dunderheaded conspiracy-driven politicians, the cut-off low wasn’t manufactured by fantasy owners hell-bent on getting a quick early lead in their pivotal Week 12 matchups.
Sustained winds around 14-17 mph with gusts exceeding 20-25 mph could whip around a persistent rain/snow mix, causing offensive production to underwhelm — at least through the air. If temperatures cooperate and lake effect snow bands develop, there’s a potential for wet snow accumulating 1-2 inches during the game. Of course, as with any weather forecast, there are no guarantees.
Spinning Mother Nature for gaming audiences, power rushers Najee Harris and Nick Chubb could operate as mudders in a contest where conservative play-calling may be deployed out of necessity. However, the wind forecast isn’t nearly as bleak as originally prognosticated earlier this week.
Harris, whether in dire or paradisiacal conditions, will be a point of emphasis for Mike Tomlin. The Steelers running back will be supplanted on occasion by Jaylen Warren, but with close to 63% of the team’s opportunity share, Harris’ work will be frequent.
Since Week 7, the Browns are No. 25 in rush EPA defense, surrendering 4.11 yards per carry to RBs. Only two backs have eclipsed 16.5 rushing attempts against them, but Harris has gripped the pigskin 17 times or more in four straight games and in seven of 10 overall.
Pittsburgh, which owns the second-highest rush rate of any team in the NFL (52.5%), is likely to ground and pound from start to finish. A likely positive game script only enhances Harris’ chances.
Bundle up, Browns fans.
Prop season record: 12-16, -5.15 units
SGP play — Steelers-Browns UNDER 43.5, Jaylen Warren 10+ receiving yards, David Njoku 3+ receptions (+140, ESPN BET)
Steelers-Browns UNDER 43.5. On the season, the Browns and Steelers have a combined 9-11 over-under record on the standard line. With the set total at 36.5, raising the number a full seven points feels like a suitable cushion. Both teams rank outside the top 15 in EPA per play offense. Most importantly, Mother Nature’s potential wrath could lead to stalled drives, numerous punts and missed field-goal kicks. Around this time last year in Cleveland, the home team bested its rival 13-10 in an offensive slog. Exactly 367 days later, a similar outcome is entirely buyable.
Jaylen Warren 10+ receiving yards. Notching 30.8% of Pittsburgh’s opportunity share, Warren is the definition of “change of pace.” The sidekick, however, has often proved efficient in small doses, especially as a receiver. On his 6.6 routes run per game, he’s totaled one of the most appreciable yards per route run (2.32) marks of any running back in the league. He’s only compiled 6.8 yards per reception, but in averaging 15.8 receiving yards per game, he’s tallied 10 or more receiving yards in six of seven contests. Cleveland has conceded the third-fewest RB receiving yards, but eight backs have reached 10 or more yards against it. Toss in the potential stiff wind, and Warren generates what’s desired.
David Njoku 3+ receptions. With his trademark stomp, Njoku is set to grab at least three passes. Given the anticipated adverse weather, the short-field pass game will likely be a point of emphasis for both squads. The sure-handed Browns tight end typically lives within a 5-15 yard range. Luring 7.4 targets per game and tallying the ninth-highest catchable target rate among eligible TEs, he’s reached what’s required in six of seven games. The Steelers rank middle of the pack in TE receptions surrendered, giving up 5.1 per game. That may seem discouraging, but 10 plus-sized targets have snagged at least three passes against them. Due to the meteorological elements, Njoku should operate as a supreme underneath safety valve for Jameis Winston.
SGP season record: 13-16, +2.67 units