SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — C.J. Stroud OVER 12.5 rushing yards vs. Lions (-115, BetMGM)
Call this gambler a loud and proud member of Team Stroud.
A key keeper in a very challenging 14-team SuperFlex fantasy league, the Texans quarterback is a prized roster centerpiece. Admittedly, his rocky second season has led to a steady Tums diet.
Entering Week 10, Stroud is a middling No. 15 in per-game fantasy points scoring. Houston’s ghostlike offensive line and the irreplaceable losses of receivers Stefon Diggs (ACL) and Nico Collins (hamstring) explain the downturn.
However, looking past this punchable face’s fantasy plights, Stroud is likely to burn calories and pad the bottom line with his legs Sunday night at NRG Stadium.
Stroud is no Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels, but similar to Baker Mayfield, the former LSU star is a sneaky effective rusher when presented with scrambling opportunities. This season, he has averaged 3.4 attempts and 15.9 rushing yards per game, achieving the proposed total in four of his last six contests.
Even without premier pocket collapser Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit’s defensive line continues to play at a high level. The Lions rank No. 9 in rush EPA defense. Still, their high pressure rate (No. 12 at 26.0%) has encouraged backfield-fixed passers to run.
Heck, if Sam Darnold and Mason Rudolph can scurry for 20-plus yards against them, Stroud surely can at least rack 13.
Sprint Stroud, SPRINT!
Prop season record: 11-15 -4.05 units
SGP play — David Montgomery anytime touchdown, Joe Mixon anytime TD (+168, BetMGM)
David Montgomery anytime TD. Yep, it’s MANDATORY. Someone crank the Billy Idol in the background. In Detroit’s backfield, the pendulum constantly swings. Some weeks Jahmyr Gibbs is the primary TD scorer. Other times, this writer’s pet player splashes six more often. It’s all about timing, series turn and what the defense gives. In other words, a lot of luck. Monty owns a penthouse inside the red zone. His 30 total touches inside the 20 are the sixth-highest among RBs. He’s also scored at least one TD in six of eight games. Houston checks in at a respectable No. 12 in rush EPA defense, yielding 4.17 yards per carry, 82.9 rushing yards per game and six total touchdowns to RBs. Despite the unsavory matchup and Gibbs’ well-documented goal-line poaches, Montgomery, who BetAlytics gives a 59.9% chance of scoring, rewards this No. 1 fan.
Joe Mixon anytime TD. His backflips into the Fountain of Youth have soaked his doubters. When healthy and in uniform, Mixon has repeatedly thumped would-be tacklers. An undeniable workhorse, the Texans running back has earned 77.2% of the team’s opportunity share, totaling 29 red-zone touches (RB7) and scoring seven touchdowns in only six games. As discussed with Stroud, the Lions bend but usually don’t break in the trenches. They have surrendered 4.56 yards per carry to RBs, but Dan Campbell’s crew has rarely folded, allowing only 79.3 rushing yards per game and six RB scores. Still, in what should be a fairly high-scoring game (49 total), Mixon hits the pylons.
SGP season record: 11-15, -0.13 units