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No. 11 Alabama (6-2) at No. 15 LSU (6-2)
Date: Saturday, November 9
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
A prime-time game in Death Valley is like Christmas in November. There are few environments better and more fun for a Saturday night game.
The booze will be flowing, a live tiger will be in attendance and both schools will fight to stay in the College Football Playoff picture. Get pumped!
The pick — UNDER 59 total points (-112, BetRivers)
This wager is essentially a bet against LSU. Taking the under on the Tigers’ team total isn’t the worst play either, but I’m sticking with the full game.
First of all, Alabama’s defense matches up well with LSU’s offense. Led by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, the Bayou Bengals’ passing game is the strength of the team. They rank 10th in passing success rate and ninth in EPA per dropback.
That all seems well and good for some scoring, but let me say, “Not so fast, my friend!” The Crimson Tide defense will be ready.
Alabama is the best in the country in opponent passing success rate. And while LSU’s EPA per dropback is ninth, Bama’s defensive EPA per dropback is eighth. The Tide secondary could give some of the Tigers receivers trouble.
On the flip side, the LSU defense isn’t as bad as people think. The rush defense ranks in the top 50, and the opponent EPA per dropback defense is 18th. Plus, it’s a night game in Death Valley, a famously tough place to play.
For Jalen Milroe — who has thrown four interceptions in his last three games — there could be spots where the Tigers defense (and crowd noise) steps up at home.
The final factor is the weather. It might be wet and windy on Saturday, and it is supposed to rain all weekend in Baton Rouge. If the field is slippery and the conditions are bad at kickoff — there’s a 45% chance of rain — the passing games for both teams could take a hit.
With both sides matching up well defensively and the potential for wet conditions looming over a high-stakes contest, I’m expecting slow-paced, methodical game scripts and a final score that sails under the proposed number.
Season record: 21-13, +7.28 units