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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Nick Chubb OVER 52.5 rushing yards vs. Chargers (-115, BetMGM)
After an extensive remodeling, the Chubb Club is once again open for business in Cleveland. Swing by, order bottle service behind the velvet rope and listen to some bass-thumping jams. The highly sought-after Browns running back, who slipped into the double-digit rounds of many August fantasy drafts, has shown no ill effects of the catastrophic knee mangling from last season. His 2.63 YAC per attempt and 14.8% missed tackle rate prove he’s still a work in progress, but by the eye test alone, Chubb has shown flashes of resembling the pre-injury hashmark-consuming monster. Ramping up his ground volume from 11 attempts two weeks ago to 16 carries last Sunday, he’s likely to be a 18-20 touch contributor in Week 9. Matchup worries are warranted. The Chargers rank No. 2 in rushing EPA defense, giving up only 84.2 yards per game to RBs, but they’ve also surrendered a healthy 4.65 yards per carry to rushers. If this scribe's prognostication about Chubb's workload is accurate, he’s sure to smash and dash to an easily achievable 53 rushing yards. Five RBs have rushed for at least 60 yards against the Bolts this season.
2. Bo Nix 2+ passing touchdowns at Ravens (+200, DraftKings)
Let your inner Gordon Gekko take over. Greed is indeed GOOOOD — especially backing a quarterback (who’s coming off his best-to-date performance) against an incredibly beatable Baltimore pass defense. The Ravens are No. 28 in dropback EPA defense, conceding 8.09 yards per attempt, 311.6 passing yards per game and 17 total air strikes to QBs. Over the last six weeks, five QBs have twirled at least a pair of touchdowns against them, including a fresh-off-the-bench Jameis Winston. Nix is an impressive No. 13 in red-zone completion percentage and has chucked two or more TDs in three of his past four games. Given his hot hand and the mouth-watering matchup, betting on Nix to spin two touchdowns at +200 is a divine value.
BetAlytics grade: B+
3. CeeDee Lamb 90+ receiving yards at Falcons (+110, DraftKings)
The last time he was featured in this space with an identical alt-line, CeeDee didn’t skip. How about another winner, Lamb? It’s likely in a potential shootout in Atlanta. The tunnel vision Dak Prescott has for the All-Pro wide receiver is well-documented. This season, the Cowboys’ No. 1 wideout has averaged 10.3 targets per game and eclipsed 90 yards in three games. A migraine for trailing DBs, he’s dusted corners routinely, as evidenced by his No. 5 standing in total route wins (110) and No. 4 placement in total YAC. With a near 50/50 route split working outside and in the slot, Lamb is sure to feast when lined up inside. Atlanta slot cornerback Dee Alford is a punching bag, allowing a 77.2 catch percentage, 115.6 passer rating and the second-most yards of any SCB. Also, the Falcons rank 24th in pass EPA defense. Order a rack of Lamb.
BetAlytics grade: B-
4. D’Andre Swift OVER 18.5 receiving yards at Cardinals (-115, BetMGM)
With Swift backed in myriad categories with Chicago’s trip to the desert — particularly with above prop — order a prickly pear margarita, plop down and enjoy the sweet sips hitting the lips. The under-appreciated Bears rusher has proven insanely productive in recent weeks. In a dual-threat role, he’s topped at least 22 receiving yards in five of his last six games. Oddly not targeted at all in last Sunday’s Hail Mary sinking in Washington, Swift should resume a prominent pass-catching role. Arizona is No. 30 in pass EPA defense, yielding 4.4 catches and 37.4 receiving yards per game to RBs, and overall, eight tacky-handed rushers have accumulated 19 or more receiving yards against it. Swift, who’s averaging a hefty 10.2 yards per reception and 13.7 routes run per game, just needs two catches to cash.
BetAlytics grade: B-
5. Tyreek Hill UNDER 76.5 receing yards at Bills (-115, BetMGM)
Swinging on a rope above a ravenous group of gators with several uncooked steaks strapped to the waist. That, my fellow gamblers, is the risky predicament of fading Hill with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa under center. This idiot, however, is willing to play Tarzan. Even with his supposed passing savior back last week, Hill didn’t live up to enormous expectations, catching six passes for a hardly extravagant 72 yards. The fleet-of-foot receiver is always capable of single-play paydays, but he’s fallen short of 77 yards in six straight games. The last time he faced Buffalo, a game in which Tua played the majority, Hill managed only three catches for 24 yards. The Bills, who rank No. 24 in pass EPA D, have allowed only four WRs to surpass the above number. Expected to slap hands with CB Christian Benford — who’s yielded only 8.9 yards per catch, a 55.2 catch percentage and 65.6 passer rating — Hill again fails to fully ignite.
Season record: 20-20, +1.42 units