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No. 4 Ohio State (6-1) at No. 3 Penn State (7-0)
Date: Saturday, November 2
Time: Noon ET
TV: FOX
Ben’s pick — Penn State first half +2.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Injury questions abound in this matchup, particularly regarding Penn State quarterback Drew Allar and Ohio State left tackle Zen Michalski.
Will the Buckeyes be able to protect QB Will Howard? Or will their offensive line struggle as it did in last week’s 21-17 win against Nebraska? And can the Nittany Lions move the ball efficiently without a fully healthy Allar?
With so many offensive uncertainties, the first-half under seems like the right bet. However, with the line set under the desired 24 points, I think a wager on Penn State to keep it close in the first half at home is a good alternative.
Recently, Ohio State has struggled to score points in the first 30 minutes of games due to offensive injuries. Typically, the Buckeyes average 20.9 points per first half, but over their last three games, that average has dropped to only 14 points.
Against a Nittany Lions defense that ranks fourth in run defense and 18th in pass defense and allows only 3.3 points per first half at home, it will be tough for OSU to get off to a strong start on the road. If Allar has any injury issues, Penn State is likely to adopt a run-heavy strategy, which will lead to more clock running.
Simply put, the Nittany Lions should be able to keep this game close for a half due to their ability to control time of possession (in which they rank 26th in the nation) and Ohio State’s expected struggles to throw the ball.
Scoring might be hard to come by — especially in the first half, as both teams work to find their rhythm amid injuries. With a less-than-desirable first half total, let’s back Penn State to keep it close through the first 30 minutes in Happy Valley.
Season record: 19-12, +6.44 units
Nate’s pick — UNDER 23.5 first-half points (-122, FanDuel) and UNDER 45.5 full-game points (-110, BetRivers)
I like this game to be low scoring, so I’m going to split my under bets to win a half unit apiece on the first half and full game.
After Ohio State’s 32-31 loss at Oregon in Week 7, I felt the Buckeyes were loaded on offense but remained a question mark on defense when assessing their national title chances.
Also, I thought there would be opportunities to bet on QB Will Howard, freshman WR Jeremiah Smith and the rest of the OSU offense to score points in the second half of the regular season. However, last week’s lackluster performance against Nebraska was very alarming.
In their first game without left tackle Josh Simmons, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against Oregon, the Buckeyes couldn’t get their running game going. The RB duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combined for only 54 rushing yards on 20 carries.
Ohio State still won the game as a 25-point favorite but lost Simmons’ replacement, Zen Michalski, to a lower-body injury in the fourth quarter. With Michalski’s status for Saturday still uncertain, the Buckeyes will likely have to shuffle their offensive line. And that is a real concern against a Penn State defensive line led by Abdul Carter, a likely NFL first-round draft pick.
In the Nittany Lions’ 28-13 victory at Wisconsin last Saturday, starting QB Drew Allar suffered a knee injury and didn’t play in the second half. Backup Beau Pribula led a second-half comeback in Madison, but the sophomore would face a much tougher task against Ohio State’s defense if Allar can’t start.
Last season, the Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions 20-12 in Columbus. I see a similar type of game materializing this Saturday in what could decide a spot in the Big Ten championship game.
Season record: 11-12, -1.93 units