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No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1) at South Carolina (4-3)
Date: Saturday, November 2
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Texas A&M looks to maintain its unbeaten conference record Saturday when it faces South Carolina in Columbia.
The 10th-ranked Aggies are coming off a statement win last Saturday, when they outscored LSU 31-6 in the second half to win 38-23. The Gamecocks are a feisty 4-3 team that is coming off its second bye week of the season, so they are primed to create more chaos at the top of the SEC standings.
Texas A&M opened as a field-goal favorite, but early money has been on the home underdog to drive the point spread down to Aggies -2.5. At +3 or better, I would bet on South Carolina, but I would pass on betting at the current number.
Instead, I’ll side with the under, which is very correlated to liking the Gamecocks’ side in this game.
The pick — UNDER 44.5 total points (-110, BetMGM)
Last week, I was on the under 54 in Texas A&M’s game against LSU. I believed the Tigers’ defense was trending up and could be a problem for a very inconsistent quarterback in the Aggies’ Conner Weigman.
That ended up coming true, and with the score at 17-7 with just under 10 minutes left in the third quarter, Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko decided to change quarterbacks and go with dual-threat QB Marcel Reed. LSU had no answer for the running ability of Reed, who reeled off four straight touchdown drives to shock the Tigers.
Reed had some starting experience when Weigman was injured in September, but the Tigers clearly were not prepared to stop a very different style of QB. Due to Reed’s impressive performance in relief, opponents now have to game plan for him. The Aggies have yet to name a starting QB for Saturday, but I would guess Reed gets the nod against South Carolina.
The Gamecock’s strength is its defensive line, which could help contain Reed in the running game. Also, playing a road game at night is a different circumstance than playing in front of your home fans.
I also like the under in this game because of the matchup when South Carolina has the ball. The Gamecocks’ play caller is former NFL offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, who struggled in the pros and hasn’t been much better in his 1 1/2 seasons in Columbia. South Carolina lacks explosiveness in its passing game with QB LaNorris Sellers, and I respect Elko’s defensive mind to have the edge on that side of the battle.
Even with this total down from 46.5 to 44.5, there’s still some value in playing the under on Saturday night.
Season record: 11-12, -1.93 units