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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Tyreek Hill 90+ receiving yards vs. Cardinals (+115, DraftKings)
Welcome back, Tua. Trapped between a rock and a hard place with Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley at the controls during Tagovailoa’s absence, Tyreek is ready to UNLEASH. The colorful language he used to describe his excitement and expected uptick in production this week is an indicator of how much pent-up angst he’s about to release. Condolences, Cardinals. Currently No. 8 in unrealized air yards, Hill is prepared to make up for previous squandered opportunities. Arizona is a subpar No. 30 in dropback EPA defense and has allowed the seventh-most yards to wide receivers. Yes, Brandon Aiyuk is the only WR to eclipse 90 yards against the Cards, but with Hill projected to draw a ton of Sean Murphy-Bunting in coverage (the DB has given up an 80.0% catch rate and 102.5 passer rating to assignments this year), the Dolphins’ speed demon should blaze a trail to multiple chunk gains. Week 1 was the only time Hill topped 90 yards. With Tua again functional, the good times return.
2. Davante Adams anytime touchdown vs. Patriots (+130, FanDuel)
The newly acquired Jets receiver may have a future in American politics. According to insiders, the words he issued after the latest beatdown New York received last Sunday night in Pittsburgh apparently resonated. Aaron Rodgers even called Adams’ speech “the realist he heard in a locker room in 20 years.” Clearly motivated to turn their season around, the Jets should galvanize quickly. This week, they square off against the hapless Patriots in the ultimate get-right spot. Jerod May’s garbage group ranks No. 29 in pass EPA defense and has surrendered eight touchdowns to WRs. Expected to mostly battle the Joneses, Marcus and Jonathan, Adams should haul in his first scoring grab as a Jet. The DBs have allowed north of a 100 passer rating and three total TDs combined. Do it for the cantina tacos, Davante.
BetAlytics grade: C+
3. Joe Mixon 90+ rushing yards vs. Colts (+150, DraftKings)
Always fixin’ to do some damage, Mixon is a tremendous alt total investment in Week 8. For starters, he’s surpassed 90 or more yards on the ground in three of four games. On the year, he’s totaled an excellent 3.10 yards after contact per attempt and forced a missed tackle on 11.7% of his carries. A certifiable workhorse, Mixon should again earn a handsome workload. Likely to land in the 15-20 carries range, he should send Colts tacklers to the glue factory. Indianapolis is No. 18 in EPA run defense, conceding 125.1 rushing yards per game and 4.42 yards per carry to RBs. In Week 1, Mixon smashed and dashed his way to 159 yards against Shane Steichen’s club. Due to the Colts’ trench D shortcomings and the rusher’s voluminous opportunity share, the Texans running back should again bang backers to the bucks.
4. Sam LaPorta OVER 35.5 receiving yards vs. Titans (-115, BetMGM)
Jameson Williams, who was suspended for gambling last year and banned for a substance-abuse violation this year, is someone this writer totally wants to party with. However, just not during the NFL season. JaMo’s absence opens the door for LaPorta to regain lost value. The prized Lions tight end, drafted in Round 3 of many fantasy leagues, is in the midst of a classic sophomore slump. He’s found the end zone only once and has yet to cross 55 receiving yards in a single game. Averaging a mere 2.8 targets per contest, he ranks outside the position's top 20 in air yards, aDOT (5.4) and yards per route run (1.60). To be fair, when Jared Goff has spun spirals in his general direction, the former Hawkeye has produced. LaPorta has averaged a hefty 16.0 yards per reception and totaled a 138.4 QB rating when targeted. Williams by no means is a volume king, but the extra 3-5 looks LaPorta may receive elevates his potential. The matchup also isn’t too shabby. Tennessee stands at No. 20 in pass EPA D. Mark Andrews broke out of his funk three weeks ago. It’s high time Lions TE does the same.
BetAlytics grade: B-
5. Caleb Williams OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns at Commanders (+100, BetMGM)
Bear … UP! Only a few short weeks ago, everyone and their kid sister was ready to anoint Commanders QB Jayden Daniels as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, Williams’ surging play and Daniels’ rib injury have the market drawing closer and closer to even. If the former Trojan plunges a short sword in D.C., minus odds could soon be visible next to his name. Bank on a multi-TD performance. Washington ranks No. 27 in pass EPA D, giving up 7.8 passing yards per attempt, 212.8 passing yards per game and 1.7 passing TDs per game. Overall, three signal callers have tossed at least a pair of touchdowns against the Commanders. With at least two air strikes in three of his last four games and Chicago’s vast array of vertical weapons, the rested Williams cashes immediately off the bye.
BetAlytics grade: C+
Season record: 18-17, +1.92 units