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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Cooper Kupp OVER 6.5 receptions vs. Vikings (-115, BetMGM)
Last week, brand-name pass catchers Davante Adams and Amari Cooper were given one-way tickets out of town. The former Raider was jettisoned to New York, while the ex-Brown packed his bags for Buffalo. On Wednesday, DeAndre Hopkins was the latest wide receiver to be moved, going to Kansas City for a conditional fifth-round pick.
Will Kupp the slot king be the next statistical giant to change zip codes?
With rumors flying that the Rams are entertaining offers for the PPR-prized receiver, Thursday night has all the showcase vibes. Finally back from a high-ankle sprain that cost him five games, Los Angeles’ slot machine is primed to steadily spit out quarters in his return.
Some surface data suggests willing investors should stay away. The Vikings rank No. 3 in pass EPA defense, but that standing is deceiving. Kevin O’Connell’s norsemen have yielded the second-most receptions to wide receivers, and five wideouts have caught at least seven passes against them.
Kupp’s primary projected assignment is slot cornerback Josh Mettelus, who has given up a 92.5 passer rating and 76.9 catch percentage to his assignments this year. As a collective, Minnesota has surrendered a ton of short-field catches to slot targets. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Garrett Wilson, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Reed and Stefon Diggs are just a few names who have torched the Vikings on quick-hit routes, a Kupp specialty.
Prior to the ankle wrench, Kupp resembled the player who once kept defensive coordinators awake at night. With his No. 15 route win percentage and Matthew Stafford’s limited reliable options, the veteran receiver is a 10-plus target candidate. Factor in the trade speculation and the excellent matchup, and a proper target funneling could commence.
Fill up thy Kupp, fellow baron of betting.
Prop season record: 9-11 -2.60 units
SGP play — Kyren Williams anytime touchdown, Justin Jefferson 50+ receiving yards, Aaron Jones OVER 15.5 receiving yards (+128, DraftKings)
Kyren Williams anytime touchdown. Size-wise, he may be the antithesis of Derrick Henry, the Football Frankenstein, but the diminutive Williams is an end-zone monster in his own right. Netting an earth-shattering 81.5% of the Rams’ opportunity share, he has accumulated THE most red-zone touches (32) of any NFL running back this season. He may be a pedestrian RB53 in yards created per touch, RB38 in YAC per attempt (2.78) and RB51 in yards per touch (3.9), but the workload is unignorable. His 10th-lowest stacked front percentage (14.5), as tracked by NFL Next Gen Stats, is also very attractive. The Vikings are the No. 1 defense per rush EPA data, surrendering only four total touchdowns to RBs. Still, the man has scored in all six games. On a #TequilaThursday, the streak continues.
Justin Jefferson 50+ receiving yards. The deluxe apartment in the sky. That’s exactly what Minnesota’s Jefferson is. He’s arguably the best wideout in the game. CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra are in the conversation, but for this gambler’s money, JJ is indeed DYN-O-MITE. It’s no shock the mega-elite WR is No. 16 or higher in yards per reception (16.1), yards per route run (3.04), yards per target (10.4) and QB rating when targeted (127.1). The bond he and Sam Darnold have forged is unbreakable. In each of his six games, he’s cruised past the 50-yard mark with relative ease. Slated to dance primarily with CB Cobie Durant, Jefferson will be tested. Durant owns the 24th-best pass coverage grade in the NFL, allowing only a 50.0 catch percentage and 42.2 passer rating. However, dating back to last year, Jefferson has topped 50 yards in 10 straight games. Expect more of the same.
Aaron Jones OVER 15.5 receiving yards. Senor Sombrero could rack 16 or more receiving yards while on siesta. He’s one of the surest-handed playmakers via the air at the RB position. This season, he’s run a route on 52.6% of snaps played, totaled 15.2% of the Vikings’ target share and caught 87.0% of intended Darnold looks. Equally important for the cash potential above, Jones is currently top-10 among rushers in yards per route run (2.29) and yards per reception (9.5). Exceeding 20 yards receiving in five straight games, he’s a high-achieving pass catcher. As for his matchup with L.A., the Rams have given up 3.8 receptions and 31.8 receiving yards per game to RBs. Also, four sticky-fingered plowshares have surpassed 16 receiving yards against them. On the road, Jones earns his tequila.
SGP season record: 6-14, -6.02 units