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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Davante Adams anytime touchdown at Steelers (+160, BetMGM)
Reunited, and it feels so damn good.
Adams and Aaron Rodgers are about to rekindle their on-field bromance in a game with must-win vibes for the Jets.
Acquired from the Raiders in exchange for a conditional third-round pick on Tuesday, the Taco Bell pitchman escaped football purgatory in Sin City and landed in an ideal environment with the quarterback from his peak days in Green Bay, where the duo posted legendary numbers.
With Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard, another former Packers wide receiver, also on the roster, Adams’ target share will take a hit. Clearly, the WR1 isn’t the only game in town.
However, given Adams’ still spectacular high-point abilities and Rodgers’ pinpoint back-shoulder throws, red-zone tight spirals will be funneled in the general direction of the six-time Pro Bowl wideout.
Bank on Adams, who has posted the 17th-best contested catch rate this season, to haul in at least one touchdown in his Jets debut. His projected adversary, Steelers cornerback Donte Jackson, has allowed only a 32.6 passer rating and zero touchdowns to his assignments this year. However, given the likely force feeding and Adams’ renewed motivations, a TD hookup is completely buyable.
Adams is still one of the game's premier red-zone menaces.
Crank the Peaches & Herb.
Prop season record: 9-10 -1.60 units
SGP play — Steelers +14, Jets +10.5, Breece Hall UNDER 75.5 rush yards, Najee Harris 40+ rush yards (+112, DraftKings)
Steelers +14, Jets +10.5. Sure, not picking a winner could be deemed as cowardly, but this sheepish fellow isn’t looking to wring out a sweat-drenched shirt. Both teams have minor defensive warts. As a result, both rank inside the top 12 in EPA per play defense. Russell Wilson’s presumed starting QB status doesn’t elicit much excitement, but he’s arguably a better passer than Justin Fields. With thousands of Terrible Towels twirling in the air, expect a tight game from start to finish. By the way: Including jacked lines on either side of the ledger is an excellent algo-confusing method to increase SGP juice. You're welcome … maybe.
Breece Hall UNDER 75.5 rushing yards. Wang Chung classic “Dance Hall Days” played on repeat last week for Hall backers who partied until the break of dawn. Finally, the first-round fantasy pick delivered meaningful numbers, tallying 169 total yards and five receptions against Buffalo. After clunkers against Denver and Minnesota, the performance resuscitated waning confidence, but it may have only been temporary. Pittsburgh is a formidable foe. The Steelers are No. 2 in rush EPA D, giving up only 3.49 yards per carry and 74.0 rushing yards per game to RBs. Overall, just three rushers eclipsed the number above against them. Hall, who ranks outside the top 30 in YAC per attempt (2.95), yards created per touch (3.29) and missed tackles forced (7), is likely to get stuffed.
Najee Harris 40+ rushing yards. Admittedly, Jaylen Warren’s slow ramp-up returning from a tender hamstring does come at Harris’ expense. Eventually, the workload distribution will approach a 60-40 Harris-Warren split. For now, though, bank on the former Alabama slammer, who’s coming off his first 100-yard game of the season, to own a considerable upper hand. Checking in at No. 26 in YAC per attempt (3.02) and an outstanding No. 3 in total missed tackles forced (22), Harris has performed well on a per-touch basis. Against a Jets defense with glaring trench flaws, he could hit the needed number by halftime. New York ranks No. 20 in EPA rush D, allowing 4.43 yards per carry and 101.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. For the sixth time in seven games, Harris crosses the 40-yard threshold.
SGP season record: 5-14, -7.40 units