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No. 9 Ole Miss (5-1) at No. 13 LSU (4-1)
Date: Saturday, October 12
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Going into this season, I considered betting under Ole Miss’ win total of 9.5 or the “no” for the Rebels to make the College Football Playoff.
I understood the hype for Lane Kiffin’s roster that returned quarterback Jaxson Dart and brought in another quality haul via the transfer portal. However, usually when a Kiffin-led team has high expectations and gets matched up against a top SEC squad, it underachieves in that situation.
The issue with selling the Rebels before the season was a very favorable schedule that avoided teams like Texas, Alabama and Tennessee. I’m going to start my fade of Ole Miss this weekend when it faces LSU in Baton Rouge on Saturday.
The pick — LSU +3.5 (-110, Caesars)
In a perfect world, the Rebels would be 6-0, and there would be an opportunity to take the Tigers with close to a touchdown in this matchup. Unfortunately, Ole Miss lost 20-17 at home against Kentucky two weeks ago as a two-touchdown-plus favorite, taking away some of the value for betting LSU in this game.
I still like the Tigers coming off a bye, while the Rebels are playing for their seventh-straight week in a second-consecutive road conference game. I like the matchup for LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who’ll be protected by two future NFL offensive tackles and take on an Ole Miss secondary that has faced a weak slate of passing attacks over the last six weeks.
I am also expecting the Tigers defense to look better under defensive coordinator Blake Baker after the week off. LSU made Baker the highest-paid assistant coach in college football last offseason after what he achieved with Missouri’s defense in 2023. The Tigers still have a lot of questions on defense, but I believe they can get enough stops against a Rebels offense that isn’t as good as many think.
Getting LSU in a night game at Tiger Stadium at an underdog price is too good to pass up, especially since I’m lower on Ole Miss than the betting market.
Season record: 8-7, +0.57 units