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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Saquon Barkley OVER 80.5 rushing yards at Buccaneers (+110, DraftKings)
Escaping from New York was all it took for Barkley to unlock his full potential. Resembling Bullet Bill from the Super Mario video game series, he’s repeatedly motored through initial contact and left defenders in the dust. The Eagles’ offensive centerpiece is No. 15 in YAC per attempt (3.51), No. 7 in total missed tackles forced (11) and No. 10 in total yards created. He’s also registered 91.4% of the team’s opportunity share. This week, Philly’s steam engine should continue to chug along. Even if interior hole-plunger Vita Vea returns from a sprained MCL, Tampa Bay is a plus matchup. The Bucs currently check in at No. 29 in rush EPA D, giving up 4.53 yards per carry to RBs. Behind an Eagles offensive line that’s No. 5 in run-blocking efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus, Barkley blasts his way to 85-plus ground yards.
BetAlytics grade: C+
2. D’Andre Swift UNDER 12.5 yards longest run vs. Rams (-130, BetMGM)
Relegated to janitorial duties, already? That could be the case. As ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler hypothesized, the Bears could feature Roschon Johnson more this week against the Rams. It’s entirely plausible. The sophomore rusher is a significantly bigger and more powerful rusher who can plow through initial contact with more north-south force compared to the finesse-styled Swift. L.A. ranks 30th in rush EPA D, yielding a generous 4.71 yards per carry to RBs, but the diminutive Swift is No. 53 among qualifying backs in YAC per attempt (1.70) and No. 46 in yards created per touch (2.95). Most damning: Only once on 37 carries has he sprinted forward for a gain of eight or more yards. ONCE! Toss in Chicago’s dreadful offensive line, and the above number feels about three yards too high. At this point, he’s a cabin rug.
BetAlytics grade: N/A
3. Zach Ertz OVER 3.5 receptions at Cardinals (+135, BetMGM)
Fantasy managers who spent a pretty penny on premium tight ends are prepared to floor it over a cliff. However, for those who played the patience game and drafted Ertz, the early returns have proven profitable. A favorite of rookie sensation Jayden Daniels, the Commanders veteran has reeled in 12 of 13 targets and ranked top-10 at the position in yards per target (9.8), aDOT (8.6) and passer rating when targeted (107.7). Ertz, who’s sprinted out on a route on 93.4% of his snaps, is a savvy pass catcher who finds creative ways to get open, especially when presented zone coverage. Topping the needed number in consecutive games, the soon-to-be 34-year-old is a value on par with BYGO stadium beers. For the third-straight week, Ertz, facing an Arizona defense that’s No. 23 in pass EPA D, rewards investors with a handsome juice.
BetAlytics grade: A-
4. Patrick Mahomes UNDER 251.5 passing yards at Chargers (-115, BetMGM)
Jake from State Farm is sorely regretting drafting Mahomes at No. 1 in his fantasy league. For his sake, hopefully he took out a sizable insurance policy and picked up Sam Darnold. For the decorated Chiefs QB, what has transpired through three weeks is jarring. The once indispensable fantasy QB1 has performed well below expectation, triggering previously unthinkable “Should I bench him?” thoughts from the fantasy masses. The good news: Better days are ahead. The bad news: Not in Week 4. Even without safety Derwin James, Jim Harbaugh trots out a suffocating Bolts secondary. This season, L.A. is No. 7 in pass EPA D, allowing 6.44 pass yards per attempt and 195.3 pass yards per game. Bryce Young offered an assist with his laughable Week 2 effort, but Jesse Minter’s defense is legit. Most alarming is Mahomes’ failure to crack 220 yards in back-to-back weeks and his rock-bottom ranking of No. 35 in aDOT (5.4) and No. 24 in total air yards. Travis Kelce’s sluggish start along with Marquise Brown’s absence have greatly altered Andy Reid’s offense. In what should be a first-to-17-points-wins affair at SoFI Stadium, Mahomes’ numbers continue to slump.
BetAlytics grade: B-
5. Allen Lazard OVER 2.5 receptions vs. Broncos (-105, BetMGM)
Bros for life. At this juncture, Aaron Rodgers probably regularly finishes Lazard’s sentences. The pair have been attached to the hip seemingly since the Pleistocene epoch. Their chemistry established years ago in Green Bay has carried east to New Jersey. So far this season, Rodgers sports a 137.5 passer rating when targeting his crafty underneath weapon. Netting a decent 17.4% of the team’s target share and working out of the slot on a third of snaps played, Lazard ranks No. 21 in catchable target rate. Most importantly, he squeezed at least three passes in two of his first three matchups. Slated to line up often against the weakest link in the Denver secondary, slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian, Lazard should again haul in three or more catches. Nearly at even money, the Jets wideout is a sensible betting target with McMillian surrendering a dozen receptions on 14 targets (85.7 catch percentage). The dragon Rodgers converses with during his ayahuasca trips would tell you the same.
BetAlytics grade: C+
Season record: 9-6, +3.96 units