SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop Play: Jalen Tolbert OVER 28.5 receiving yards at Giants (-115, BetMGM)
Dak Prescott? Nah. Malik Nabers? Pass. What about CeeDee Lamb? Negative, bro.
Of all the individuals to slam #TequilaThursday shots on, not even the biggest riverboat gambler stacked chips on jersey No. 1. Yep, this whack job is banking on a wide receiver with an earth-shattering 34 catches in three seasons.
Bartender, leave the bottle.
The reasons are completely warranted. For starters, Tolbert's role is steadily growing. Over the first three weeks, the Cowboys wideout has sprinted out on 19, 38 and 45 routes in consecutive matchups against the Browns, Saints and Ravens. Also, he’s No. 28 in aDOT (11.9), No. 34 in total air yards (131), No. 31 in yards per reception (13.6) and No. 20 in total route wins (26). As a result, he’s topped 40 receiving yards in back-to-back games, passing Brandin Cooks as Dak Prescott’s true No. 2 option.
The Giants are a respectable No. 15 in EPA pass defense. Only Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Noah Brown and Amari Cooper have reached 29 receiving yards against them. That may not offer much encouragement, but Tolbert’s projected primary assignment sways opinion.
The overlooked Tolbert has lined up 38.4% of the time in the slot, a position where he could inflict serious damage against New York. Why? Primary SCB Cor’Dale Flott has been targeted eight times and surrendered eight catches for 106 yards. That’s right: He’s given up a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Prescott’s rising confidence in Tolbert as well as his primo matchup and above-average secondary profile all point to a sweat-free cash, which inevitably means he’s destined to be a Dunkin’ franchisee in Jersey. An apple spice donut, please.
Prop season record: 4-6 -2.20 units
SGP: Giants +10.5, Daniel Jones 25+ rushing yards, Jake Ferguson 3+ receptions (+138, ESPN Bet)
Giants +10.5 alt spread. Before the season, never in a million years did this -EV bettor believe he would place a single dollar on the Giants, yet here we are. The reason why is simple — the Dallas Cow Chips are lousy defensively. At No. 28 in EPA per play defense, they’re hardly the most feared unit. Yes, the G-Men aren’t exactly world beaters on offense, but with route-winner Malik Nabers stretching the field and Devin Singletary executing at an exceptional level on the ground, even a team led by Daniel Jones can hang. Throw in the rivalry game motivation, home crowd and Dallas’ subpar No. 20 standing in EPA per play offense, and New York keeps the game within single digits if not grabs the victory outright.
Daniel Jones 25+ rushing yards. Run like Lamar Jackson, you terribly average “franchise” quarterback. The much-maligned Jones only has a 72.7 passer rating in six career games against the division rival, but he’s produced favorable results on the ground. In contests against the Cowboys, he’s scrambled for 121 yards on 34 attempts. Given Little D’s dead-last ranking in rush EPA defense, No. 1 standing in applied pocket pressure (41.1% of QB dropbacks) and New York’s No. 24 ranking in offensive line efficiency, the recipe is ripe for Jones to work the legs. Hopefully, he added an additional 10 pounds on the squat rack this week. On roughly 7-9 scurries, he reaches the desired threshold.
Jake Ferguson 3+ receptions. The former Wisconsin Badger is worth a bucks backing. In two games this season, he’s enticed a considerable 16 targets from Prescott, catching at least three passes in each. A terrific route runner who exposes soft spots in zone coverage, Ferguson should be active once again between the hashmarks. Against the Giants, Jordan Akins and Zach Ertz both hauled in four passes. Also, Ferguson has snagged three receptions in two of four career games against the Giants. As long as New York isn’t sunk early, he should achieve what’s necessary.
SGP season record: 3-7, -3.95 units