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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop Play: SGP — Trevor Lawrence OVER 10.5 rushing yards, Josh Allen OVER 25.5 rushing yards (+102, DraftKings)
Be springy. Be spry. And be opportunistic, franchise cornerstones.
Both Lawrence and Allen are modern-day mobile quarterbacks. Whether on the occasional designed run or duress-influenced scamper in the open field, they read, react and, generally speaking, turn the wheels for sizable ground gains. In a Jaguars-Bills matchup in which defense will likely be the name of the game, the QBs should tally enough rushing attempts for the SGP to cash.
In pressure rate this season, Jacksonville (22.8%) and Buffalo (18.3%) are only middle-of-the-pack. The tampered heat may limit unscripted dashes, but the low thresholds above are still quite achievable.
Stretching back to last year, Allen has topped 25.5 rushing yards in five of his last six contests. Meanwhile, Lawrence has bolted to the needed mark in four of his last six games over the same span.
Take off as though an ax-wielding maniac is chasing you, gents.
Prop season record: 4-4 -0.20 units
SGP: Bengals ML, Zach Ertz 3+ receptions, Ja’Marr Chase 5+ receptions (+130, ESPN Bet)
Cincinnati ML. Standing at an unexpected 0-2, the Bengals have rather substantial odds to get off the schneid. They have Tee Higgins back in uniform and are matched against a Commanders defense that could make Nathan Peterman look like an All-Pro. Washington ranks rock-bottom in EPA per play D — and by a significant margin. Joe Whitt’s group has surrendered a staggering 6.2 yards per play, the fourth-worst mark in the league. Whether tearing up the visiting team’s sorrowful secondary or pounding the rock in the trenches with Zack Moss, Cincinnati should acquire its first win of the season.
Zach Ertz 3+ receptions. Resembling the top-tiered tight end who once had Eagles fans pumping fists, the 33-year-old veteran is showing signs of turning back the clock. According to PlayerProfiler, he’s converted 100% of catchable targets. He also ranks top-three among qualifying tight ends in yards per target (11.3) and yards per reception (12.9). Jayden Daniels owns a 113.5 passer rating when looking at the safety valve’s direction. In what is likely to be a negative game script for the Commanders, Ertz is seemingly destined for a 4-6 target night. Cincinnati ranks a respectable No. 13 in dropback EPA D and held Mr. Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, to only one catch in Week 2, but the established over-the-middle chemistry between Ertz and his rookie QB is likely to occasionally bubble.
Ja’Marr Chase 5+ receptions. His wallet may be a little lighter after giving referees the business in Week 2, but Cincinnati’s alpha dog is sure to elevate his bark in a dream matchup. Washington trots out arguably the worst secondary in the NFL, ranking last in dropback EPA D and yielding at least five receptions to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Malik Nabers. When you can make Daniel Jones look competent, it’s a stinging indictment on just how trash your coverage is. Chase’s projected primary assignment, CB Benjamin St-Juste, has given up 11 catches on 18 targets (61.1%) and a 118.8 passer rating. Already with 23 route wins according to PlayerProfiler, the Queen City’s receiving king hauls in at least five catches for the second time in three games.
SGP season record: 3-5, -1.95 units