Michigan State vs. Boston College best bet: Evenly matched fight

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Michigan State (3-0) at Boston College (2-1)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network

This is a matchup of overachievers. Michigan State and Boston College were nowhere near the national spotlight to begin the season. But after a 3-0 Spartan start and BC’s national TV victory over Florida State, this game looks way more fun now.

Looking from afar, the number seems WAY off on where it should be. An dare I say the wrong team might be favored?

So let’s take advantage of an under-the-radar Big Ten team getting too many points.

The pick — Michigan State +7 (-115, DraftKings)

On what’s sure to be an emotional night during its Red Bandana Game, Boston College enters the game having received a ton of national attention. But even that stunning win over then-No. 10 Florida State has now lost its shine since the Seminoles appear to be a bad team. The Eagles did their job beating up on FCS Duquesne in a 56-9 rout and covering as 14 1/2-point road dogs in a 27-21 loss at No. 6 Missouri.

There’s certainly a lot to like about what head coach Bill O’Brien has done with the squad, especially with quarterback Thomas Castellanos who has thrown for nine touchdowns and only two interceptions.

Boston College goes up against the second-best defense it’s faced thus far and certainly one of the top rushing defenses it will face this year. In fact, MSU leads the Big Ten in tackles for loss (27) and is second in sacks (11).

Sure, the Spartans’ competition has not been the best, but the sheer aggression and numbers they’ve put up — while dealing with injuries — have been impressive. And with the Eagles ranking 22nd in the nation in rush percentage, they might struggle on the ground against a Michigan State defense that is 15th in opponent EPA per rush.

MSU’s 27-24 road win over Maryland showcased the fight it has. Coming back from a fourth-quarter touchdown deficit to win the game on the road is a tough task for any team, let alone in the Big Ten. Under first-year head coach Jonathan Smith, the Spartans have shown both the offensive and defensive ability to show up in tough environments when needed.

Plus, let’s be honest. There’s really nothing between these two teams that showcases an ability to blow out the other. Both are quality fighters that have the ability to counteract each other’s strengths fairly well.

Boston College’s offense may struggle on the ground, but it could help itself through the air. Michigan State’s defense might be able to keep the team’s head above water if the offense struggles.

With two teams seemingly more even than not, I’m more than happy to take Sparty as a touchdown underdog on the road.

Season record: 6-6, -0.30 units