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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop Play: Stefon Diggs UNDER 56.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Cue Billy Raftery in the background. Diggs is the definition of a “nickel dimer.” To put it another way, he’s the tortoise in Aesop’s Fables.
Slow and steady may indeed win the race, but when it comes to the props market, he may require a dozen targets to achieve the OVER. His Week 1 usage was a strong indicator of how the veteran will be deployed this season, as all six of his targets went for receptions but totaled a lowly 33 yards. As a result, his advanced measurements — 1.03 yards per route run and 5.5 yards per target especially — were awfully discouraging.
With Nico Collins and Tank Dell operating as primary field stretchers, Diggs will likely function mostly as a dirty worker underneath. His projected primary assignment, SCB Kyler Gordon, isn’t a blanket by any stretch. In his three-year career, Gordon has allowed a 77.1 catch percentage and 102.1 passer rating. Even though the Bears are No. 2 in dropback EPA defense after one week, Houston’s slot man should accumulate the catches. Just bank on snack-sized gains.
Prop season record: 2-3 -1.10 units
SGP: Bears +14.5, D’Andre Swift 10+ receiving yards, Stefon Diggs 3+ receptions (+115, ESPN Bet)
Bears +14.5. Bear all the way down. Chicago’s offensive performance was nothing short of repugnant in its 24-17 win against Tennessee. Bluntly, Caleb Williams and company reeked of fiber-bar fueled flatulence. Questions surrounding the availability of Keenan Allen (heel) and Rome Odunze (knee) only increase doubts. However, the Bears’ opportunistic defense — entirely responsible for their improbable come-from-behind victory last week — will continue to be a calling card. The Monsters of the Midway rank No. 8 in EPA per play D. In what should be a fairly tight affair, ramping the spread to +14.5 feels like enough of a cushion, especially against a bottom-third Texans defense.
D’Andre Swift 10+ receiving yards. Call this gambler a loud and proud Swiftie. With Allen and Odunze functioning at less than full strength, if at all, the Chicago RB should display active hands. Last week, Swift failed to register a reception, but he sprinted out in the open field as a receiver on 41.4% of his snaps. Logging 74.1% of the overall snaps and registering 73.3% of the opportunity share, the well-traveled vet has a distinct advantage over background singers Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor didn’t catch a single pass against Houston in Week 1. However, consider that an anomaly. The Texans, ranked No. 20 in dropback EPA D, are likely to dwell near the bottom of the category this season. Expect offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to establish an early rhythm for Williams with quick screens or swings to Swift. Get him involved, Bears.
Stefon Diggs 3+ receptions. As discussed above, this -EV bettor can’t Diggs it on receiving yards, but the alt-receptions market is an entirely different story. If Chicago has a soft spot in its secondary, it’s the aforementioned Gordon. Again, he’s surrendered a 77.1 catch percentage in his brief NFL career. Diggs, who tallied 19.4% of the team’s target share against Indianapolis, is bound to haul in three passes whether on quick hitches, short-field outs or shallow crosses. The sure-handed wideout, who totaled 17 route wins in Week 1, knows how to generate just enough separation.
SGP season record: 0-4, -4.00 units