SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
Texas A&M (1-1) at Florida (1-1)
Date: Saturday, September 14
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Texas A&M and Florida are on a similar path. Both experienced tough home losses in Week 1 and rebounded with dominant Week 2 wins against an FCS team.
I trust these teams about as much as I trust myself to avoid stomach troubles after a Taco Bell run. So let’s focus on the total.
The pick — Texas A&M at Florida UNDER 47 points (-110, DraftKings)
What stood out in the schools’ Week 1 games was their lack of offensive efficiency.
Conner Weigman and Texas A&M managed only 13 points (none from touchdown passes) in a 10-point home loss to Notre Dame, which ended up losing to Northern Illinois last Saturday. Although Weigman had a better performance in a 52-10 victory over McNeese State, the Aggies’ game plan remained heavily focused on the running game with 38 rushing attempts for 333 yards.
Does Mike Elko trust Weigman enough to air it out on the road in The Swamp? I doubt it. He’ll likely resort to a run-heavy game plan that would make Forrest Gump proud. Texas A&M will try to dominate the Gators in the trenches, since Weigman has struggled to consistently sustain drives, particularly with deep passes.
Florida also will attempt to keep the clock running with its dual-quarterback system. Graham Mertz is scheduled to return from a concussion, and DJ Lagway has seemingly become coach Billy Napier’s new darling.
The lack of continuity at QB should make it difficult for the Gators to sustain long or even short drives, especially with deep shots. They threw for just 122 yards in a 41-17 season-opening loss to Miami and rode Lagway’s 456-yard, three-TD performance in a 45-7 rout of Samford. Texas A&M’s defense is tougher than either of Florida’s previous opponents.
Whoever is behind center for Florida benefits the under play. If Mertz gets the start, the Gators will likely go with a run-heavy, short-passing offense. If Lagway is the guy, he may make some freshman mistakes with his deep balls against an actual FBS opponent.
Both teams are likely to struggle at moving the ball down efficiently. So let’s live in the Land Down Under.
Season record: 4-4, -0.20 units