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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Justin Jefferson 90+ receiving yards at Giants (+110, DraftKings)
There’s a reason why a bib is firmly tightened around the neck. Locking this wager in at plus money has the salivary glands gushing. Jefferson, the Vikings’ all-world receiver, faces a Giants secondary that could be hilariously inept. Talk about delectable. Last season in 10 games, JJ was his usual DYN-O-MITE! He averaged 10.0 targets per game and was WR6 in yards per target, WR4 in yards per route run and WR13 in yards per reception. Sam Darnold is a downgrade from Kirk Cousins, but the Minnesota QB chucks a decent deep ball. Slated to dust Deonte Banks — the New York cornerback earned one of the lowest coverage grades (48.6) in 2023, per Pro Football Focus — Jefferson jolts the G-Men.
2. Taysom Hill OVER 14.5 rushing yards vs. Panthers (-115, DraftKings)
If the scuttlebutt is true, New Orleans’ multidimensional weapon should occasionally pop off. Likely the real RB2 behind Alvin Kamara, Hill could have his number called on the ground roughly 5-7 times per game. Last year, he accumulated an impressive 2.90 YAC per attempt on 81 rushes. In his lone matchup against the division rival Panthers in 2023, he blasted his way to a season-best 75 yards on nine carries. Carolina, which ranked dead last in rush EPA defense, has only one direction to go. Given the personnel upgrades, the Panthers should improve somewhat in the trenches. Still, this number is simply too low.
BetAlytics bet grade: N/A
3. Rico Dowdle OVER 6.5 rushing attempts at Browns (-140, DraftKings)
Umm, were the oddsmakers roasting their pasty white bodies on a beach in the Mayan Riviera the entire summer? Based on team reports, Dowdle is the expected front-runner in the Cowboys’ RBBC, so the proposed number should be closer to 10. Unless Deshaun Watson turns back the clock to his Houston days and somehow successfully bombards Dallas’ top-five secondary to give Cleveland a sizable early lead, Dowdle grips the pigskin at least seven times. Yes, it’s a heavier juice, but this gambler is gleefully slapping the wallet.
BetAlytics bet grade: N/A
4. Mike Evans anytime touchdown vs. Commanders (+140, BetMGM)
My cousin, who was gifted all the height and athletic genes of multiple Evans generations combined, is set to have a killer opening act. A red-zone goliath over 17 games last season, he lured 17 inside-the-20 looks, totaled 13 touchdowns and ranked No. 1 in total air yards. His dynamite downfield abilities have skewered defenses repeatedly in what is sure to be a Hall of Fame worthy career. Matched against former Chargers CB Michael Davis — who graciously served up nine TDs, a 119.8 passer rating and a 65.6 catch percentage to his assignments last year — Evans splashes six.
5. Trevor Lawrence UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns at Dolphins (-114, FanDuel)
Everyone and their corpulent Corgi expects a shootout to occur in the oppressive, late-summer heat of Miami. Pump the brakes on that belief. Both Jacksonville and Miami jog out top-10 overall defenses. Specific to the Dolphins, they’re in the running to have the best secondary in the NFL. Corners Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller typically burrito-wrap their assignments. Last season, they surrendered a combined 77.4 passer rating. Ramsey (hamstring) is listed as questionable, but the coaching staff is “hopeful” he suits up. Even if the DB isn't active, this prop could still cash. Last year, Lawrence tallied two or more passing TDs in only six of 16 games (37.5%). Given his modest red-zone accuracy (QB16 in ‘23) and Miami’s coverage hawks, the Jaguars QB tosses only one end-zone strike in the opener.
NFL props season record: 0-0