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No. 3 Texas at No. 10 Michigan
Date: Saturday, September 7
Time: Noon ET
TV: FOX
Ah, the national championship matchup we all expected last season — Texans vs. Michiganders. It’s the showdown we never got to see because of Michael Penix and Washington, but at least we have the college football blue bloods meeting in Week 2.
With offensive abilities in question for Michigan and defensive talents in abundance for both teams, I’ve honed in on a totals bet that will no doubt be a sweat, but I believe it’s the right side.
The pick — First-half UNDER 21.5 points (-110, Caesars)
The viewership numbers from the dad demographic are going to be sky-high for this game because there will be LOTS of good defensive play. While defense may win championships, hopefully it will win this first-half total bet and keep the scoring low for both teams.
Last Saturday, Michigan did not have a stellar performance in a 30-10 home victory against Fresno State. The offense looked stagnant at times, and the Wolverines just couldn’t dominate a smaller school in ways they had been able to do the past couple of seasons.
With a new quarterback, new coach and new system, it will take some time for Michigan to get used to the changes.
The Wolverines’ bright spot was its defense. They yielded a second-quarter field goal and fourth-quarter touchdown to a Fresno State team that ranked 35th in the country in scoring last year at 30.2 points per game. Michigan allowed just 4.1 yards per play and only 39 rushing yards (when you subtract the three sacks for minus-30 yards), as the defense played like it did in 2023. That’s a good sign for the Maize and Blue.
Texas almost had a perfect game in a 52-0 home win against Colorado State. The Longhorns produced 545 yards of offense and punted just once, but it was their defense that looked incredible with seven punts forced, two interceptions and only 74 passing yards.
You see where I’m going here?
This will be a matchup of defenses. Michigan’s offense still has plenty of questions at quarterback, including whether Davis Warren is the right choice or if Alex Orji should take his spot. Donovan Edwards had two receptions for zero yards and only ran for 27 yards on 11 carries. It just seems like the offensive setup isn’t quite there yet.
The Wolverines defense, especially its line, should show up strong against the Longhorns. Quinn Ewers won’t have nearly as easy of a time against Michigan’s secondary as he did against CSU’s. Plus, a loud road environment will surely mess up some play calls and timing issues.
With all that in mind, give me the first-half under. The teams will need some time to feel each other out, and getting four scores with these defenses seems like a tall task.
I have no idea who wins this game or who even covers, but I know the defenses will show up. And that’s all I need.
Season record: 3-1-1, +1.85 units