Award markets in any sport are endlessly discussed, debated and wagered on. The long-term investments take months to be paid out, but bettors of all backgrounds love the potential windfall.
After perusing the “Of the Year” exchanges, which ones had my eyes popping? The picks below stood out for an Atlanta Falcons two-fer.
Raheem Morris to win AP Coach of the Year (+1300, DraftKings)
This wager might — and that’s a giant MIGHT — be tastier than the local Magic City lemon pepper wings. Apologies, Lou Williams.
Backing up the truck in August, the Falcons greatly bolstered their defense by adding marquee names Matthew Judon, Justin Simmons and A.J. Terrell. Prior to the acquisitions, ESPN’s Mike Clay ranked Atlanta No. 27 in total defense. Now, the unit has the look and feel of a top-half unit.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
With the easiest projected strength of schedule of any NFL team and a rather weak NFC South, it would be shocking if Kirk Cousins and company didn’t win the division outright. Again citing ESPN’s Clay, the Dirty Birds have a 53% or greater win probability in 14 games. It’s no wonder they sit at -225 to make the playoffs (DraftKings), -145 to win the NFC South (FanDuel) and -140 to go OVER 9.5 wins.
Bottom line: If the Falcons live up to their growing expectations, Morris is a shoo-in for Coach of the Year discussions. At his current +1300 juice, betting on him is like scoring BOGO beers at the concession stand.
Bijan Robinson to win AP Offensive Player of the Year (+2000, BetMGM)
According to boots on the ground covering the Falcons, Tyler Allgeier — the perpetual Robinson thorn — is still expected to play a noteworthy role, possibly earning as many 12-14 touches per game. This doubter says “hogwash.”
Earlier this summer, Morris said he and the coaching staff envision using the sophomore rusher in a Christian McCaffrey-like role. If true, the 2023 eighth overall pick is destined to receive anywhere between 18-22 touches per game. Grossly misused last year under Arthur Smith, Robinson is sure to have his 52.5% opportunity share grow with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson calling the shots. Bank on Bijan maximizing efficiency.
In his rookie campaign, Robinson took advantage of his limited opportunities. Over 17 games, he totaled 3.10 YAC per attempt (RB18), 3.38 yards created per touch (RB12), 5.4 yards per touch (RB9) and 52 missed tackles forced (RB8).
Given Atlanta’s widely perceived top-10 offensive line, box-lightening vertical attack and likely positive game scripts, Robinson should rack up the numbers. It’s entirely plausible he finishes north of 1,000 yards on the ground with 70-plus receptions, 600-plus receiving yards and 11-13 total touchdowns.
Pot-committed for Bijan to lead the fantasy football pack this season, I’m doubling down on the narrative with a little action on OPOY to further accelerate my drunken optimism.