On the gaming Venn diagram, fantasy and betting overlap at player props. Growing in popularity, the offerings speak to all parties in very black and white terms.
Given the established decades-long popularity of fantasy football, they’re a perfect entrance for rookie gamblers to dip their toes in the betting waters.
As someone who’s bet in some form or fashion since my prepubescent days — thanks Gramps for the totally “legal” weekly against-the-spread NFL pool entries — the variety and convenience in these digital-driven modern times is positively mind blowing. Every football weekend, there are hundreds of ways, if not thousands, to slice and dice the action.
Hey, standard sides and totals are for Boomers. We’re living in the golden age of sports betting, and among young audiences, player props are leading the way.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Lines like Patrick Mahomes over/under 299.5 passing yards are at the forefront for myriad reasons. For starters, many gamers were educated in fantasy first. Secondly — and related to the last point — player props are easy to follow. And the United States is a celebrity-based culture. Betting on big names — especially when he’s YOUR GUY — is what many psychologically gravitate toward.
With player prop bets all the rage, oddsmakers have devised creative ways to lure your dollars. As a result, new markets are popping up all the time, whether futures, weekly or in-game. Case in point, DraftKings recently rolled out “Milestones” — wagers that feature statistical thresholds for players at various positions to potentially reach.
Among those wagers, here are three dice rolls that immediately stood out. Fade or follow? That’s up to YOU!
Will Levis 4,000+ passing yards (+380). With a sharpened sword in hand, Levis has consistently skewered defenses throughout training camp. In Year 2, his summer ascension is noteworthy. His precise passes, muscular downfield arm and improved pre-snap processing should send the fantasy sleeper skyward. Yes, he lived in the basement among qualifying QBs in adjusted completion percentage last season. His 17 interceptable passes in nine games were also unnerving. Still, Levis set the league pace in air yards per attempt (10.4) and has a quality supporting cast around him. DeAndre Hopkins (knee) may miss the first couple games of the regular season, but remaining parts — Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Treylon Burks, Chig Okonkwo, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears — aren’t punks. Levis’ 11th-easiest projected strength of schedule for fantasy QBs and Tennessee’s likely bottom-5 defense only add to the attraction. At +380, this wager is akin to scoring a bottle of Clase Azul at a Jose Cuervo price.
Joe Mixon 1,000+ rushing yards (+170). Friend and fellow behind-the-mic betting voice Michael Jenkins recently discussed his love for Mixon over 850.5 rushing yards on his BetQL show, “The Daily Tip.” Hey Jenks, please leave some bed space for this betting bawd. A sexy value whether laying action on the rush props over or the Milestone above, the former Bengal should knock the boots in H-Town. No projected starting running back has an easier fantasy strength of schedule than Mixon. Not one. Called an “absolute workhorse” by Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, the veteran rusher should tally at least 70% of the team’s opportunity share. Dameon Pierce has earned some late-summer hype, but he’s a clear second fiddle. Admittedly, Houston’s likely bottom-10 run-blocking line is a negative. Still, Mixon ranked top 15 in total yards created and total evaded tackles (53) with Cincinnati last year. In a CJ Stroud-led Texans offense flush with proven vertical weapons, he is likely to get 17-19 carries per game and become a strong candidate to cross the required threshold.
Romeo Doubs 5+ receiving touchdowns (+125). O Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo? Well, profit-seeking Shakespearers, you can find the “beauteous flower” blooming in the red zone. A fixture inside the 20 throughout training camp, Doubs is likely to again carve out a significant scoring role. His 17 red-zone targets tallied last season ranked No. 14 among all NFL wide receivers. Overall, he hauled in eight touchdowns in 17 games. Reading the WR room in Green Bay is complicated. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Craft will earn Jordan Love’s affections in a spread-the-love offense. However, Doubs’ prior red-zone success is likely to carry over. The Packers have the 10th-easiest projected strength of schedule among fantasy WRs. Also, Love’s No. 15 standing in red-zone completion percentage in 2023 should climb. Add it up, and Doubs makes backers dollars on the very buyable +125 bet above.