The 2024 college football season kicks off Saturday, August 24. Nate Jacobson and Ben Wittenstein preview the major conferences with their predictions and best bets.
Which team is the best bet to go OVER its regular-season win total?
Nate’s pick — UCF OVER 7.5 wins (-115, FanDuel)
UCF is a buy team for me in its second year in the Big 12 and the fourth campaign with Gus Malzahn as head coach. Malzahn went to the transfer portal to get QB KJ Jefferson, who previously played at Arkansas for five seasons. Jefferson is a dual-threat QB that had his best years in 2021 and 2022 under offensive coordinator Kendal Briles, who leaned heavily on Jefferson’s running ability. Last season didn’t go as well for Jefferson because OC Dan Enos asked him to be more of a pocket passer, which didn’t maximize Jefferson’s abilities.
Malzahn employed dynamic run offenses during his time at Auburn, so Jefferson is a perfect match for his system especially with running back RJ Harvey and Toledo transfer Peny Boone joining him in the backfield. The duo each accumulated over 1,400 yards on the ground last year.
UCF has a lot of toss-up games on its schedule after facing New Hampshire and Sam Houston State. The Knights have a trip to Florida in early October plus nine conference games, but I believe the run-heavy offense with the right personnel will get them to at least eight wins. I wouldn’t be surprised if they played Utah in the Big 12 championship game.
Ben’s pick — Utah OVER 10 wins (+120, BetMGM)
Look, I can’t write such a glowing review of Utah to win the Big 12 and NOT recommend them to also go over its win total. That wouldn’t be fulfilling my journalistic duty.
Last year, the Utes managed eight wins without star QB Cameron Rising. Now they’ll have him back, and when you really look at it from all angles, this could be an 11-win, or dare I say, 12-win season for Utah.
The schedule is incredibly favorable, with mostly manageable road games and no matchups against teams like Kansas, Kansas State and West Virginia. The road game at Oklahoma State will be challenging, especially as it will be the second consecutive road game for the Utes. However, even if we chalk that game up as a loss, it’s hard to foresee one more, let alone two more, losses.
With Rising’s veteran presence and a talented roster of receivers and backs, Utah has one of the most dangerous offenses in the country. Coupled with Kyle Whittingham’s ability to consistently maximize his team’s potential, Utah could be a formidable — potentially undefeated — team in 2024.
Which team is the best bet to go UNDER its regular-season win total?
Nate’s pick — Kansas UNDER 8.5 wins (-155, BetMGM)
A handful of sportsbooks have the Jayhawks’ regular-season victory total installed at 8, but I’m willing to pay extra juice to win this bet if they finish 8-4 instead of pushing on the bet.
There are a few reasons why I’m down on Kansas this year even though its schedule is favorable. I respect the job that Lance Leipold has done in Lawrence by taking a Big 12 basement dweller to back-to-back bowl games. However, asking the Jayhawks to go 9-3 is a huge leap, and I’m willing to bet against it.
I’m expecting the Kansas offense to take a step back after losing OC Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State. Kotelnicki was the OC for Leipold-coached teams since 2013, including stints at Wisconsin-Whitewater and Buffalo before following him to Kansas.
I would attribute a lot of KU’s success the last few seasons to Kotelnicki’s play calling and the maximizing of talent on the roster. Kansas hired a respected offensive mind in Jeff Grimes from Baylor, but it could be a difficult transition for Leipold after he was so familiar with Kotelnicki as his play caller.
Some injury questions surround QB Jalon Daniels, who dealt with a back injury and missed a large portion of last season. Luckily for Kansas, they had a very good backup in Jason Bean, but 2023 was his last year of eligibility. If Daniels’ back flares up again it could be a rough campaign for the Jayhawks.
I’m also on the under because Kansas will not play a home game on campus due to football stadium renovations. The Jayhawks will play two games at Children’s Mercy Park, the home of Sporting Kansas City in MLS, and the other four games at Arrowhead Stadium. They’ll still get fan support for those contests, but it won’t be as strong of a home-field edge as playing in Lawrence.
Ben’s pick — Colorado UNDER 6 wins (-120, Circa)
I really hate to be the guy that fades the Buffaloes again, but like Bill Murray in “Groundhog Day,” I’m doing it once more.
Not only does Colorado have a slew of transfers and new players, but it also needs to make everything work by Week 1 because it has one of the Big 12’s toughest schedules. The Buffs start off against North Dakota State — not an easy opponent — and then have road games against Nebraska and rival Colorado State.
That’s a grueling first three weeks before the Big 12 slate even begins!
Colorado also has to travel to UCF and Texas Tech and then play Kansas at Arrowhead. It’s a challenging schedule that would be tough for any team, let alone one comprised mostly of transfers still learning to play together.
Many lines are set at 5.5 wins, so if you can grab the 6, I’d highly recommend doing so.