The month-long journey of the 2024 European Championship concludes on Sunday with the final between Spain and England at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. Both teams are coming off dramatic 2-1 semifinal victories, setting up a fascinating title match whether you’re a fan or bettor.
Spain return to the stadium where their Euro campaign kicked off when they dispatched Croatia 3-0 on the first Saturday of the tournament. Spain also beat Italy to top Group B with three wins and knocked out host Germany and France in the last two rounds.
England have had a more rocky road to the German capital. They have lacked goals and benefitted from a much more favorable group and knockout stage. However, late-game moments of individual brilliance by Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and Ollie Watkins have prevented the Three Lions from going home.
The pick — Spain vs. England first-half draw (-105, ESPN BET)
This is definitely not an easy game to call. Spain have been the best team in the tournament and have played much better competition over six matches. England were the pre-tournament favorites and boast a core of very talented players in the prime of their careers who can change a match at any moment.
I do agree with Spain being the favorite against England based on what we’ve seen at the Euros. A total of 2.5 goals that is heavily juiced to the under makes sense in the final of a major tournament because teams usually take a cautious approach.
The possibility of both sides playing a conservative style leads me to a bet on the first half ending in a draw. A slow start where Spain and England feel each other out is the way I see the match playing out in a scoreless first 45 minutes.
There’s another path to winning this bet if there’s an early goal and a quick equalizer before halftime. Both Spain and England conceded in the first 10 minutes of their semifinals and then leveled the score soon after. Spanish winger Lamine Yamal, who turns 17 on Saturday, scored 12 minutes after France took the lead on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, England equalized 11 minutes after the Netherlands grabbed an early advantage. The deficit forced Gareth Southgate’s side to play a more open style, which resulted in Harry Kane’s penalty kick and England’s best half of attacking soccer in the tournament. The Three Lions also bounced back quickly against Switzerland in the quarterfinals, when they gave up a 75th-minute goal and evened the match on Saka’s strike five minutes later.
The talent on display and the teams’ mentality to fight back after giving up a goal make the first-half draw appealing in case it doesn’t end up 0-0 after 45 minutes.
If both sides scored in the first half, I would look to live bet under 3 or 3.5 total goals with the idea that the game could tighten up as the second half goes on. Spain controlled the ball while up 2-1 against France in what ended up being a scoreless second half. England focused on defending in the second half with a 1-1 halftime score before Watkins came off the bench and scored a classic 90th-minute winner.
If I was forced to pick a team to lift the trophy, I would choose Spain. But the only pre-match bet I’ll have on the game will be decided after the first 45 minutes.
Euros record: 6-5-1, +5.65 units