If not now, when?
If the Mavericks don’t have a hot start in Game 3 of the NBA Finals while down 0-2 to Boston, when will they ever get the chance to change the series? They’re about as "backs against the wall” as they can get.
If you’ve been watching the Finals, you know the Celtics are simply a better basketball team. They hit more threes, play better defense and have been better coached.
However, there is one spot that I love to bet in these situations, and it’s for a team down 0-2 to have a great first half back at home.
The pick — Mavericks -1.5 first half (-117, BetRivers)
Squads trailing 0-2 in playoff series are 91-47-1 against the spread in the first half since 2006. That’s a 66% ATS win percentage.
Dallas has all the motivation in the world to start fast on Wednesday. The Mavs have been struggling from three-point range, and they are due to see a positive regression in their outside shooting. Also, role players typically perform better at home, so P.J. Washington should perform better than his 1-for-5 shooting on threes in Game 2.
Add the possibility of Kristaps Porzingis not playing due to injury, and everything lines up for Dallas to have an explosive first 24 minutes.
BONUS PICK — P.J. Washington OVER 2.5 threes (+148, FanDuel)
NBA postseason record: 9-11, -2.57 units