It’s too bad Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are meeting in the French Open semifinals. The matchup is truly worthy of being the final.
Alcaraz, the third seed and pre-tournament betting favorite, appears set to assume the throne as the new king of clay from Spain. Sinner, the No. 2 seed and soon-to-be world No. 1, is 33-2 this year and has won 12 straight matches at majors, a streak that began with his Australian Open title run in January.
Their tournament stats at Roland Garros are basically a mirror image. Of their nine career meetings, six required tiebreakers, and their last Grand Slam encounter — in the 2022 U.S. Open quarterfinals — lasted five sets. Alcaraz prevailed that day, and he owns a 5-4 edge head-to-head, having won their last match in March at Indian Wells.
So it’s no surprise that sportsbooks list Alcaraz as the favorite for Friday’s showdown — anywhere between -160 (BetMGM) and -170 (DraftKings). Sinner is a +140 underdog (DraftKings and FanDuel). It’s essentially a coin flip on who advances to Sunday’s final.
Sinner was my pick before the tournament, and I won’t be betting against him. I’m opting for the following wager.
The pick — OVER 38.5 total games (-118, FanDuel)
- FanDuel offer: Bet $5 and get $200 in Bonus Bets
The only certainty is that this semifinal will be a long, hard-fought battle. Alcaraz and Sinner are playing so well that it’s difficult to envision one steamrolling the other in straight sets.
Cashing on the over on the proposed game total requires at least four competitive sets, maybe a fifth. That’s not as daunting as it seems.
Alcaraz and Sinner have pushed each other to the maximum number of sets in four of their last six matches, and that includes their last run-in on clay two years ago in the Croatian Open final, which Sinner won 6-7 (5), 6-1, 6-1. Alcaraz, then 19, got his revenge two months later in a U.S. Open five-setter en route to his first Grand Slam title.
Both arrived in Paris amid injury questions. Both have lived up to the billing as men’s tennis’ next big things. The latest chapter of the sport’s next great rivalry is sure to be a marathon — and a memorable one.
Tennis record — 2-0, +1.72 units