It all comes down to this. With the NBA Finals starting on Thursday, how will the league’s annual crescendo hit? Brad Evans attempts to slam dunk the sportsbooks with a plus-money SGP on Mavericks-Celtics Game 1. Fade or follow — that’s up to you!
The pick — SGP: Mavericks +10.5 alt line, Luka Doncic 25+ points, Al Horford 1+ threes (+110, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
With both the Mavericks and Celtics well-rested and properly fueled, Game 1 of this NBA season’s apex is sure to bring the noise.
Boston’s storied franchise — it has only 17 championships to its name — is the heavy favorite. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are aiming to grab a seat alongside Bill Russell, Larry Bird and Bill Walton (RIP) at the roundtable of team legends.
Many pundits and insiders believe the C’s gripping the Larry O’Brien Trophy is an inevitability. Countless voices have picked Joe Mazzulla’s squad to add another banner to the TD Garden rafters. No doubt, this underwater bettor — who’s all-in on Dallas pulling a shocker special — is in the minority.
In a likely feeble attempt to erase the current NBA units deficit, what SGP legs is this gambler chasing in Game 1? Dive in on the details below.
Mavericks +10.5 alt line. Only two times during this entire playoff run has Dallas fallen short by 11 or more points — Game 1 against the Clippers and Game 1 against Oklahoma City. OK, both times were series openers, but covering the alternative spread in 10 straight games increases achievability. Boston does have a +6.7 advantage over the Mavs in net rating this postseason. However, the devastating 1-2 punch of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving — the duo is playing at a historic level — should keep Dallas off the mat.
Luka Doncic 25+ points. His name is Luka. Twenty-five points is his friggin’ floor. Apologies, Suzanne Vega. Hey, that point of view is completely baked in reality. In these playoffs, The Don has averaged 22.3 shots and 28.8 points per game. Whether drilling expletive-laced three-point daggers near the buzzer, pounding the rock inside or cashing in at the charity stripe (80.6 FT%), he simply puts up points. In the pair of regular-season matchups against the Celtics, the five-time All-Star scored 33 and 37 points. Tallying at least 25 in seven straight playoff games, Doncic pulls his end of the rope against a good, but not great, Boston defense (1.087 points per possession allowed in the postseason).
Al Horford 1+ threes. It only feels like he entered the league before the three-point shot’s existence. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2007 NBA Draft is undoubtedly ancient, but he continues to prove age ain’t nothing but a number. The 38-year-old has shot a respectable 34.6% on 5.6 three-point attempts per game in the playoffs, and he’s drained at least one triple in 11 of Boston’s 14 postseason contests. Against a Dallas defense that ranks No. 9 in three-point percentage defense (35.6% in the playoffs), Horford silences Father Time yet again by landing a trey bomb.
NBA postseason record: 12-24, -10.08 units (Yes, we’re terrible!)