Much like me trying to look good while taking a picture, this year’s NBA Finals aren't the sexiest. They're oddly intriguing, though.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are eyeing their first titles, and so is Luka Doncic. Kyrie Irving has a chance to get his second ring, and sad Chicago fans get to watch former Bulls Daniel Gafford and Derrick Jones Jr. play in the Finals.
After scouring the sportsbooks for a long time (25 minutes), I’ve found three future bets that intrigue me.
Series game spread — Mavericks +1.5 games (-125, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
I’m on the side of Brad Evans’ Finals pick. I really do like the Mavs, but if you’re still scared by Boston’s talent, may I suggest a series spread bet?
Dallas, as I’ve mentioned before, is my favorite team to bet on after a loss. The Mavericks haven’t lost two in a row this postseason and owned a top-five winning percentage after a defeat in the regular season. They’re just a very hard team to beat in a consistent manner due to a combination of Jason Kidd’s coaching and Doncic’s talent.
The Mavs are going to fight. We’ve seen them bounce back throughout the playoffs, and I’m going to hammer their spread/moneyline if they lose Game 1.
Having to face the offensive firepower of Doncic and Irving in a seven-game series is a tough task for any team, even one as good as the Celtics. So I’ll take Dallas’ talent to help keep this series close.
Number of games to reach overtime — One or more OT games (+190, FanDuel)
- FanDuel offers: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins
This is more of a “fun” bet than anything else. However, these teams are closer in talent and ability than the spread and general consensus have you think.
Over their last 10 games, the Mavericks (110.9) and Celtics (110.6) have virtually the same defensive ratings, true shooting percentages (59.1%, 60.8%), and field-goal percentages (48.3%, 48.9%). They both can hit threes like no one’s business, and both have shown the ability to come back when they’re down.
The point is, the reason both clubs have gotten this far is that they’re incredibly hard to put away. I’m expecting much of the same in the Finals, and with that expectation, comes an overtime game.
Series most total made threes — Derrick White (+350, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
White can stroke it. There’s no denying it anymore.
In fact, he ranks fifth in the postseason in made threes per game. Fifth! He averages 3.4 threes on 8.4 attempts (seventh in the playoffs). You pair that with a Dallas defense that gives up 11.7 threes and 32.9 three attempts per game, and you get a nice little recipe for three-point success for White.
His shooting from beyond the arc isn’t a fluke, either. Of all players in the playoffs who average seven or more three attempts, he ranks third in three-point percentage at 40.7%. And there will be chances for White to launch from distance with the defensive attention on Tatum, Brown and the now-healthy Kristaps Porzingis.
So let’s target a little value in this pick and hope White goes off in the Finals.
NBA postseason record: 9-8, +0.43