The eyes of the international sports world will be on Wembley Stadium in London on Saturday for the UEFA Champions League final between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid. It’s the European soccer equivalent of the Super Bowl with an estimated 450 million people worldwide watching the conclusion of soccer’s premier club competition.
The Champions League’s qualifying rounds began last July, and the field was narrowed to 32 teams for the group stage in September. In February, the knockout phase began with 16 teams playing in a bracket-style tournament that concludes Saturday with the finalists. The competition is played exclusively on Tuesdays and Wednesdays outside of the final, which was moved to Saturdays in 2010.
It’s no surprise to see Real Madrid in the championship game.
They are the 14-time Champions League winners, twice as much as the second-most winningest club, AC Milan. To reach the final, Real Madrid took part in classic quarterfinal and semifinal ties against Manchester City and Bayern Munich, respectively. On the domestic front, they won Spain’s La Liga by 10 points over Barcelona.
It is a surprise to see Borussia Dortmund in the title match.
There have been much better versions of Dortmund in recent years, including last year when they lost the German Bundesliga in demoralizing fashion on the season’s final day. This year’s Dortmund, who lost star player Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid for a $110 million transfer fee last summer, finished fifth in the Bundesliga, 27 points behind champion Bayer Leverkusen.
Despite going through early season domestic struggles, Borussia Dortmund found ways to get results in the Champions League group stage, where they finished first in the “Group of Death” that included Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan and Newcastle United. In the knockout phase, Dortmund defeated PSV Eindhoven, Atletico Madrid and PSG to advance to their first Champions League final since 2013, when Jurgen Klopp was their manager.
The pick — Real Madrid to win, OVER 1.5 combined goals (-115, DraftKings and BetMGM)
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If you’re a neutral fan who wants to root for the underdog, Borussia Dortmund would be the perfect “Cinderella” to support. Not only are they unlikely participants, but they present an opportunity to cheer against the most successful club in Champions League history.
However, if you’re looking for a bet, I would recommend backing Real Madrid in this match.
Real Madrid are an extremely experienced side led by coach Carlo Ancelotti. Bellingham has been a hit in his first season with Madrid, and Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo are very strong players in attack. Los Blancos also have plenty of world-class options in midfield with veterans Toni Kroos and Luka Modric and young talents like Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni. With the midfield controlling the game, Real Madrid will have the majority of the possession.
Borussia Dortmund deserves credit for winning the toughest group. They have capable players who can provide a great individual moment, but they are extremely fortunate to be in the final after how their two semifinal games against PSG played out. It’s a minor miracle that PSG didn’t find the back of the net over 180 minutes, as the French league champs accrued 5.36 expected goals in a pair of 1-0 defeats to Dortmund.
PSG scored 0 goals from 5.36(xG) in the Champions League semi-finals against Borussia Dortmund. pic.twitter.com/TLBPpFF9qI
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) May 7, 2024
I’m betting on Real Madrid to win in 90 minutes and with over 1.5 combined goals scored in the game. That means Real Madrid must win in regulation by any score that isn’t 1-0.
Although finals can have slow starts as teams try to avoid making big mistakes, I can see regression hitting Dortmund in terms of not allowing goals despite the advanced stats not being in their favor. Real Madrid is a team I want to bet on at this stage because they won’t be intimidated by the moment, and they have the personnel to break down a team that finished fifth in their own domestic league.